• Comments for September 20, 2022

    As we can see below, accumulation was rather strong yesterday.



    This was not just the tech sector as we can see below, but



    accumulation was across many stocks/sectors.







    The question is why, especially when rates continue moving higher and with investors expecting the Fed to increase rates by at least 0.75% tomorrow.



    The money flow move into equities might be mechanical: risk is in the bond markets and hence cash is moving into the higher yield assets...

    But we can see below that in terms of yields, equities are barely undervalued compared to fixed income assets. Hence, even if equities seem to be forming a bottom, we cannot say that there is much upside from here. The max upside is probably around $4125 on the S&P500.



    Conclusions:

    Higher expected interest rates automatically pulls money out of fixed assets and into equities.
    But equities are not cheap here, even though we can see below that they seem to form bottom similar to the one of mid of July.



    The NHNL also seems to form a similar pattern.
    I would however still prefer to see a market flush before accumulating here.