Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.
We are issuing reversed signals simply because the GDX Model is whipsawing around the 0 level.
I attach below two screen shots taken at different time, but very close to the EOD.
You can see that the confidence level varied much.
The reason is simple: All instruments experience and end of day spike, which correspond to "at the close" orders.
For GDX, the average spike is 0.0582%. However, 20% of the end of day spikes are above 0.085%
Since the distance between the signal and the Buy level was always lower than 0.085% in the last minute of trading, then an intraday confirmed buy signal could NOT be issued.
I myself however closed the short when the confidence level was around 55% and took a long position at a confidence level of 70%, but the system is programmed for 80% (I "gambled" that the spike at the end of the day would not be strongly negative.)
Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.
Please understand that the confidence level is only a guide that uses past trade statistics. I advise everyone to take trading decisions as they see fit. When the confidence level is 70%, it means that in 7 cases out of 10, the signal did not reverse by the close.
What you might do is close a previous position when a new signal reaches 50% and then open a new position afterward when you see it fit, depending on you judgement of the probability.
The GDX Model is now in a BUY PROTECTED mode.
We will most probably also add in a new information box the probability that a new "NON-CONFIRMED" signal is issued during the day. Once such a signal is issued, then the system will turn on the confidence level.
Pascal