OPEX Friday - January 20, 2012

[Billy]

Indeed, it's the conditions of "selling into strength" that I'm questioning with respect to the anecdotal evidence presented by the current GDX trade. I am not sure what may constitute a better exit condition, merely speculating that somehow factoring the-then prevailing forward-LT/ST stats may prove useful in testing.

As a side note, Figure 3 in the GDX doc shows the vast portion of return (GDX equity curve on a log-Y scale) to be produced between Aug 2008 and April 2009, a rather narrow and unique period of time, which may make judgement of the rest of the ~4yr test period somewhat challenging.

No system can give 100% satisfaction on 100% of the trades. Building a robust system through thick and thin with a minimal rate of failure is the best we can work for and I let you be judge if we are getting close or not. The current trade is neither a loser nor even exited yet, so any post-trade analysis is premature.
Billy

[TraderD]

No system can give 100% satisfaction on 100% of the trades. Building a robust system through thick and thin with a minimal rate of failure is the best we can work for and I let you be judge if we are getting close or not. The current trade is neither a loser nor even exited yet, so any post-trade analysis is premature.
Billy

I agree with you. Just to make sure I'm not misunderstood - it's fairly common to generate ideas for rigorous testing from anecdotal evidence (preferably, more than one or two examples). Ultimately, this is a marathon, not a sprint, granted, so I wouldn't be remotely tempted to render judgement on the system based on a single trade (especially if it's still in the green and not exited), alas you can always trust me to come up with more ideas for you to test :)

Trader D

[manucastle]

No system can give 100% satisfaction on 100% of the trades. Building a robust system through thick and thin with a minimal rate of failure is the best we can work for and I let you be judge if we are getting close or not. The current trade is neither a loser nor even exited yet, so any post-trade analysis is premature.
Billy

(The current trade is neither a loser nor even exited yet, so any post-trade analysis is premature.)

Not for those of us who acted, perhaps prematurely, on Pascals early comments on the MF yesterday and sold GDX, but I understand that this is work in progress.

Trev

[Billy]

(The current trade is neither a loser nor even exited yet, so any post-trade analysis is premature.)

Not for those of us who acted, perhaps prematurely, on Pascals early comments on the MF yesterday and sold GDX, but I understand that this is work in progress.

Trev

Trev, I feel really sorry, but you should have been able to exit with a small gain above 51.62 anyway. Under strong demand pressure, we made a mistake in trying to help members with the RT indicators before the end of the beta testing. We will refrain from doing so from now on.
Note that this incident doesn’t put the GDX robot official rules in question.
Billy

[manucastle]

Trev, I feel really sorry, but you should have been able to exit with a small gain above 51.62 anyway. Under strong demand pressure, we made a mistake in trying to help members with the RT indicators before the end of the beta testing. We will refrain from doing so from now on.
Note that this incident doesn’t put the GDX robot official rules in question.
Billy

Thanks Billy, keep up the good work :O)

Trev