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Thread: Mousetrap 3/24/2012 -- why market timing doesn't work

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
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    Commission Free ETFs

    For those who trade ETF's and are not aware, many brokerages (Charles Schwab, E*TRADE, Fidelity, Firstrade, Interactive Brokers, Scottrade, TD Ameritrade and Vanguard) offer free ETF trades: http://etfdb.com/type/commission-free/fidelity/ Fidelity offers free trades for our friendly Robot ETF ... IWM

    Fidelity Roth IRA + IWM Robot = tax and commission free trades!
    Last edited by Harry; 03-26-2012 at 07:56 PM.

  2. #2
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    Jan 1970
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    Las Vegas, NV
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    Harry,

    Do be sure to check for short-term trading fees with any commission-free etf program, which may be assessed if the fund is held less than a specified period of time (usually 30-days). There are also no-transaction fee mutual funds at many firms, but the transaction fee will be assessed upon not meeting the holding requirements, too. The cutthroat nature of the brokerage business has dramatically decreased commission costs and simultaneously improved many platforms, and that seems overall beneficial for retail customers, though.

    Best,
    Eric

  3. #3
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    Finally some money into bearish sectors

    Condition Bear Market Rally
    S&P Target 1020
    Small Portfolio IAU & XLF 17.80%
    Hedge XLU -1.21%

    Position Date Return Days Call
    GCI 7/14/2011 19.33% 256 Hold
    CSGS 10/3/2011 24.60% 175 Hold
    NLY 10/25/2011 2.84% 153 Hold
    DD 10/27/2011 17.46% 151 Hold
    KBR 10/27/2011 26.01% 151 Hold
    VG 10/27/2011 -32.52% 151 Buy
    TTM 11/30/2011 59.95% 117 Hold
    BT 1/4/2012 17.76% 82 Hold
    PDLI 3/7/2012 5.91% 19 Hold
    CLF 3/19/2012 -1.71% 7 Hold

    S&P Annualized 6.45%
    Small Portfolio Annualized 21.67%
    Mousetrap Annualized 24.00%
    Hedged Annualized 22.53%

    Took awhile, but the money flow now favors bearish sectors. Could be a false signal and it could cancel tomorrow – but at least today, for the first time in five months, the money flow is indicating a pullback.

    I mentioned the other day that Len was looking for a pullback as well.

    Doesn’t really affect me either way, since the Mousetrap is hedged with a short position in utilities (XLU). Granted, utilities are somewhat ambivalent for a short, but they’ve behaved rather well thus far.

    Generally the reason why there are double tops and bottoms in the market is because institutions have to sell and buy as they rotate between offensive and defensive sectors. If the market is going to go down, it’s best to be in something like utilities. But in order to move to a defensive sector, you have to sell the offensive sector first to raise cash. Hence a dip like Friday with selling offensive sectors and a pop like today buying defensive ones.

    You’ll note the model is still short utilities, so there is still no indication for a massive pullback – yet.

    No need to make any changes to the positions, but this is a good place for a… hiccup… in the market.

    Don’t get faked out by the 1020 target I have listed for the S&P. That’s still residual from last year, and I’m waiting for a new bullish target if we get a little pullback to clear the air for a fresh reading. As I said over the weekend, jumping in and out of a bunch of stocks is a fool’s errand unless one has a model FAR more sophisticated than mine. Better to hedge when needed and rely on fundamentals to do the rest.

    Tim

  4. #4
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericoleman View Post
    Do be sure to check for short-term trading fees with any commission-free etf program, which may be assessed if the fund is held less than a specified period of time (usually 30-days).
    Thanks Eric. Fidelity's 30 Commission-Free iShares® ETF's (including IWM) have no commissions or short-term trading fees: http://personal.fidelity.com/product...nds.shtml.cvsr

  5. #5
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    Jan 1970
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    New York, NY
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    Free?

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry View Post
    For those who trade ETF's and are not aware, many brokerages (Charles Schwab, E*TRADE, Fidelity, Firstrade, Interactive Brokers, Scottrade, TD Ameritrade and Vanguard) offer free ETF trades: http://etfdb.com/type/commission-free/fidelity/ Fidelity offers free trades for our friendly Robot ETF ... IWM

    Fidelity Roth IRA + IWM Robot = tax and commission free trades!
    It never cn be really free if there is no cost charged then they have some small print which will allow them to put the account balance at risk. Or they have to do something with less attractive fills. Free trading seems to me just impossible.

    But there are enough brokers who charge 1ct per share (on way) even in brokerage accounts. I use TOS and have 1ct per share

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Long Island, New York
    Posts
    515

    Wellsfargo

    With the number of trades I do on the Mousetrap per year, I can get them all free in a Wellsfargo account.

    Haven't shifted yet, but considering it.

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