IWM Robot Trading for May 23, 2011

[grems8544]

Billy,

Can you discuss how you determine a 3-day target of 81.16?

Regards,

pgd

[Billy]

Billy,

Can you discuss how you determine a 3-day target of 81.16?

Regards,

pgd

Paul,

The "most probable" 3-day target is simply Today's optimal entry minus (the 3-day expected gain times the probabiliy of achieving this gain) 82.74- 82.74*(3.10% * 61.67%).
All these numbers are given daily on the IWM Robot page. The "most probable" target is not part of the robot system, but allows for monitoring that everything is evolving as or even better than expected.
Billy

[happy]

Paul,

The "most probable" 3-day target is simply Today's optimal entry minus (the 3-day expected gain times the probabiliy of achieving this gain) 82.74- 82.74*(3.10% * 61.67%). Billy

Billy ... just to confirm the math, in your scenario above, the 'most probable' exit would have been $81.158 giving a 1.91% gain.

$82.72 * (0.031 * 0.6167) = $1.581
$82.72 - $1.581 = $81.1582

Can you please confirm that I am doing the math correctly?

[Billy]

Billy ... just to confirm the math, in your scenario above, the 'most probable' exit would have been $81.158 giving a 1.91% gain.

$82.72 * (0.031 * 0.6167) = $1.581
$82.72 - $1.581 = $81.1582

Can you please confirm that I am doing the math correctly?

Yes Sir, the math is correct.
Billy

[happy]

The "most probable" 3-day target is simply Today's optimal entry minus (the 3-day expected gain times the probabiliy of achieving this gain) 82.74- 82.74*(3.10% * 61.67%). Billy

Billy, would it be possible to confirm what above math ... I just want to make certain I understand the probability you are discussing.

$82.74 * (0.0310 * .6167) = $1.5818. So, I assume $1.58 would be the 'most probably' expected gain or 1.91%. Therefore setting a sell order at $81.15 would acheive that target ($82.74 - $1.58 = $81.16).

Just want to make certain I understand your post. Thank you as always!!