Originally Posted by
mscott
My definition of volatility is to measure the 14-day average true range measured as a percent of index close prices. When a bear market bottoms this measure is usually quite high and begins a long-term decline that lasts for the entire bull market run, including interim market corrections. The ATR% makes lower lows and lower highs or just bumps along the bottom. When ATR% begins to stair-step upward making higer lows and higher highs the bull market is nearing an end state. This condition began last December and I have been believing that a major market top was building. Volatility of another sort has been obvious.