Improving Market Structure - December 12, 2011

[Billy]

Nickola,
The robot needs sustained up or down trends to make its largest returns. I don’t really care if we are heading into apocalypse or into a new 1982 secular bull market. I am confident that the 20 DMF and the robot will capture such trends early. I would even prefer the apocalypse and take a small loss in this choppy sideways mean-reverting environment before cashing big in a crash.
All I see in my analysis is that we are objectively closer to a rally of uncertain duration than a waterfall. All reward-risk measurements do favor the long side. I trade my plan accordingly until proven otherwise and shut off the billions of noises and emotions running on the planet.
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

Billy,

Thanks for the note.

In fact, I have taken this course over the past week or so. I'm only tuned into this website and Charles Kirk. His notebook alerts me with a groan, and, as you know, he is saying the same things about Mr. Market as you.

Presently, the groan alerts:

Largest buy program of the day makes a final hour appearance to close us back within the range and above the 20 day support

Fears. What are these things that we cling to? Or do they cling to us? Our little ghosts. Electro-chemical impressions upon the recording apparatus called the brain. We can use them as the stuff of art and project them with our media devices, our voices, our computers, our photographic collections. and for a little while we're free.

I made my fears public to be laughed away (thanks Trev).

Be gone fear. Good riddance.

[Billy]

Billy,

Thanks for the note.

In fact, I have taken this course over the past week or so. I'm only tuned into this website and Charles Kirk. His notebook alerts me with a groan, and, as you know, he is saying the same things about Mr. Market as you.

Presently, the groan alerts:

Largest buy program of the day makes a final hour appearance to close us back within the range and above the 20 day support

Fears. What are these things that we cling to? Or do they cling to us? Our little ghosts. Electro-chemical impressions upon the recording apparatus called the brain. We can use them as the stuff of art and project them with our media devices, our voices, our computers, our photographic collections. and for a little while we're free.

I made my fears public to be laughed away (thanks Trev).

Be gone fear. Good riddance.

The big difference with Charles Kirk is that he is a reactive trader while we are trying to be proactive.
He knows the tricks of reactive trading well. The robot is mastering the nuances of proactive trading.
If you mix the two, you'll be confused more often than not.

About our inner fears, they must be part of our trading plan. Is the initial worst case stop loss too big for your stomach? Just bite a smaller chunk in the position and be ready for smaller thrills. That's proactive trading.
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

Thanks for taking the time, and I hope I didn't wear out my welcome. All the thoughts are deeply appreciated and will be subject to continuous consideration. Cheers.

[adam ali]

The big difference with Charles Kirk is that he is a reactive trader while we are trying to be proactive.
He knows the tricks of reactive trading well. The robot is mastering the nuances of proactive trading.

If you mix the two, you'll be confused more often than not.

Billy, this last sentence is a very interesting comment and one that I hope you will flesh out over time.

[TraderD]

The robot needs sustained up or down trends to make its largest returns. I don’t really care if we are heading into apocalypse or into a new 1982 secular bull market. I am confident that the 20 DMF and the robot will capture such trends early. I would even prefer the apocalypse and take a small loss in this choppy sideways mean-reverting environment before cashing big in a crash.
Billy

If I understand correctly, you're implying that an extended choppy environment will inevitably drag the robot into a losing territory, yet in the long run, the mix of trends vs chops is such that the robot cannot afford to be left out of a position when the big swings materialize. It strikes me that the most recent trade could have been quite profitable already (rather than criss-cross above and below the entry price) if it were to have taken multiple ATR-size profits off the entry limits (e.g. 73.14->75.00 =~ +2.5%) but that would have required the robot to change its plan (it simply doesn't know the stats associated with that scenario). As you say, statistically there's that big swing chance awaiting that will dwarf all these small losses to chop so sticking to the robot plan, as tested, is the best course of trading action.

Trader D

[Pascal]

If I understand correctly, you're implying that an extended choppy environment will inevitably drag the robot into a losing territory, yet in the long run, the mix of trends vs chops is such that the robot cannot afford to be left out of a position when the big swings materialize. It strikes me that the most recent trade could have been quite profitable already (rather than criss-cross above and below the entry price) if it were to have taken multiple ATR-size profits off the entry limits (e.g. 73.14->75.00 =~ +2.5%) but that would have required the robot to change its plan (it simply doesn't know the stats associated with that scenario). As you say, statistically there's that big swing chance awaiting that will dwarf all these small losses to chop so sticking to the robot plan, as tested, is the best course of trading action.

Trader D

The IWM Robot's trade record is below.
You can see that after the string of small losses during the summer, we changed the robot settings to avoid trading weak signals. We are up 18.38% since March, while with the new model, we would be up 27.51%. This means that the new model can handle choppy environments.

One last point concerning the current trade: we entered the trade on December 1. However, the IWM Robot had been searching for a long position since the 20DMF issued a buy signal and its entry point of 68.74 was almost hit on 11/28, as the low of the day was 68.91. To me, this means that the current settings are "in tune" with the market.


Pascal

[TraderD]

The IWM Robot's trade record is below.
You can see that after the string of small losses during the summer, we changed the robot settings to avoid trading weak signals. We are up 18.38% since March, while with the new model, we would be up 27.51%. This means that the new model can handle choppy environments.
Pascal

Pascal, many thanks for the clarifications. It may well be that skipping the weak signals altogether is the best decision for the robot. However, I'm still pondering whether an alternative trade mgmt plan (e.g. taking volatility-based profits) would have been able to address the chop (presuming it coincides with the weak signals) and provide for competitive returns.