Confessions and Questions

[nickola.pazderic]

1. Billy's link made much sense to me. thanks again.

2. I'm trained in social analysis, music and linguistics. Cultural, social, and economic analsys makes sense to me; mathematics and programming are not my strong suits.

3. I'm very sensitive to sound.

4. I was also, at one time, a highly rated chess player-- no longer to be sure.

I have tested my ideas in paper trading, and my performance is consistently superior to my real-world trading.

I should also note that my results with Think or Swim since last year are literally zero.

On the other hand, with Vanguard's quiet grandpa technologically inferior interface, I reached over 40% in the first five and a half months of 2011.

I think some of my problem with TOS is that it overwhelms me sensually-- too much information and no real capacity, it appears, to reduce the static/noise.

Of course there are many angles from which to ponder such problems. Knowing I'm at wit's end gives me good reason to turn to a robot. Unfortunately, the robot closed me out of a good trade and told me to sit tight at the low end of a market!

many thanks,

[Kenneth K]

......, the robot closed me out of a good trade and told me to sit tight at the low end of a market!

That can happen with any single trade from any trading system. When N=1, the observation is meaningless.

The relevent measurement is what the outcome would be in 20 trades and more. Based on the data, the Robot will shine.

[nickola.pazderic]

But I wish I knew a way to contribute intellectually or otherwise to its success...

Now, I need to go buy a new lawn mower...

[Kenneth K]

May be you can make a thread and share your sense of the market rhythm?

If I asked how I could integrate my driving style to improve the performance of my car, no one would have any clue about that b/c I haven't provided any information about how I drive.

[nickola.pazderic]

The above comment brings to mind the fact that nearly everyone thinks they are an above average driver.

I wonder if traders think similarly? The harsh reality of monetary loss should prove to them otherwise.

In fact, as the responses point out any rythm that I may sense is entirely subjective and not universalizable. And yet, I had a clear sense that I was making a bad choice last week. The problem, to my mind is simply this: from a long term, fundamental decision standpoint, the robot is an exceedingly logical choice-- provided its programmers can adapt it to the feedbacks that it itself may generate! However, from the immediacy of my experience and sense of self and the markets, the long-term choice seemed unreasonable. This contradiction must occur to trend traders frequently, I suppose.

Now I will confess my intution for fun and perhaps profit: I took a large position in TNA at the end of the day. I can give numerous fundamental and technical reasons for this position, but when I made the trade I asked myself: does it sit/feel right? And the answer was yes.

Now I hope very much I'm in alignment with the robot. If, however, the robot directs a sell...I will take note of the irony and...probably put on the trade. I would like it much more, of course, if my sensibilities and judgments aligned perfectly with the device. But alas the human race has not yet evolved into such a cyborg!

Looking for to tomorrow's robot direction and Pascal's comments,

[Kenneth K]

The above comment brings to mind the fact that nearly everyone thinks they are an above average driver.

I wonder if traders think similarly? The harsh reality of monetary loss should prove to them otherwise.

That happens to new drivers, and new traders. Beginner's luck.

[Kenneth K]

My last comment.

The reason to go with a mechanical system, is b/c a well tested mechanical system helps the traders to avoid the biggest plaque in trading, ie emotion.

To inject 'sense and feel' back into a well tested mechanical system, appears to defeat the original purpose.

Good luck to all.

[Neil Stoloff]

I took a large position in TNA at the end of the day. I can give numerous fundamental and technical reasons for this position, but when I made the trade I asked myself: does it sit/feel right? And the answer was yes.

Nickola, consider the possibility that your "yes" answer made it more likely that you entered a bad trade, not a good one. The market doesn't care how you feel. I have seen reports (consistent with my own experience) from investors who follow a disciplined strategy that their best trades have tended to be the ones about which they felt the worst when entering them, and their worst trades came when they felt the best.

Cheers,

Neil

[nickola.pazderic]

I never thought this thread would last so long or be resurrected. Well, since it is, I'll share another confession:

I missed the big move this week in IWM.

However, I'm not concerned about that loss terribly.

Indeed, it provides a good lesson for me.

One aspect of the market that attracts me is that victories and losses are clearly visible on the balance sheet-- unlike other social realms where wins and losses are calibrated in secrete and result in unpredictable outcomes.

I also confess that taking losses in the market has become increasingly less stressful for me. In November when the market turned against me, I experienced a terrible migraine headache. A couple months later, I had a second less powerful one. And some time after that, I had 1/2 a migraine. And now, I feel a little agitated--see the beginning of this thread-- but I believe there will be another, better day.

Partly this faith comes from my experience and partly this comes from the work here. I'm amazed and inspired by the intelligent discussion and serious analysis that goes into many threads and comments. I literally cannot wait to read the comments after I wash my face in the morning. I hope it continues like this, and I hope I continue to improve, too. To improve certainly means to become less emotional and more disciplined.

Here's to the next challenge that the market presents and our capacity to adapt, overcome, and prosper.

[Rembert]

Nickola, consider the possibility that your "yes" answer made it more likely that you entered a bad trade, not a good one. The market doesn't care how you feel. I have seen reports (consistent with my own experience) from investors who follow a disciplined strategy that their best trades have tended to be the ones about which they felt the worst when entering them, and their worst trades came when they felt the best.

Cheers,

Neil

The IWM robot for example often takes trades that I feel look like terrible setups based on my discretionary feelings.
For example the last one, you had price below a declining 5 day MA below a declining 10 day MA below a declining 20 day MA below a thick Ichimoku cloud resistance on the 60 min. Who in their right mind would take such a trade on the long side ? The robot apparently, and so far it turns out to be correct.