Hi Mike,


Very interesting comment!

I find that one major difference between 1995 and 2016 is that in 1995, we were at the early stage of the Internet revolution, which was beneficial for the whole world. In 2016, we see a growing propensity for nations to revert to protectionism. The supposed growth that will come in the US economy will be at the expense of other nations' economic activities. In itself, it is a zero sum game, with exchange rates arbitrating the fight. The big winner will be Germany (high productivity/low currency.) Maybe Germany will have to leave the Euro zone at some point.

For the US to be able to manage its deficits and interests payment, maybe there is no other way that money printing. This could lead to a new US bull market. Government spending in public works will not be enough if interest rates rise.



Pascal