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Thread: Something has changed - a while ago

  1. #21

    160613 EoD

    We are at the steeper trend line.
    We had two days of RTH- selling.

    What are practical conclusions from this ?

    I would say, if one is in a short from some intraday pattern, it would be ok to hold short overnight.
    Betting that the weakness in Asia or Europe continues.

    For longer-term long positions this is not enough to close them IMO.

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  2. #22

    160614 EoD

    RTH was bought again.

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  3. #23

    160615 EoD

    a trend line break

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  4. #24

    160616 EoD

    strong RTH buying again,
    after weakness in Asia and Europe

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  5. #25
    Yes, indeed... What a strange market!!!



    Pascal

  6. #26

    160617 EoD

    We had some selling rth.
    Probably tested the steeper trend line from below.

    I don't know how much weight we should give to the daily developments.
    IMO key is to spot a change in the general behavior of buying during RTH but selling ON.

    This would be a hint that some key players change their behavior for a while.

    Pascal identified the NIRP-refugees as a likely dominant group.
    I would add pension funds within the US doing something similar to NIRP-refugees: hunting for yield in US equities - or stop doing so for a while.

    Aswath Damodaran gives us some equity yield numbers (Implied EquityRiskPremium):
    Implied ERP on June 1, 2016=5.03% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 6.12% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 6.16% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 5.54% (Net cash yield); 4.66% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
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    Last edited by PeterR; 06-18-2016 at 01:48 PM.

  7. #27

    160620 EoD

    We had selling RTH.

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  8. #28

    160621 EoD

    basically unchanged

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  9. #29

    160622 EoD

    some selling

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  10. #30

    160623 EoD

    some buying rth
    before the strong selling during BREXIT.

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