Breakout or not

[Pascal]

The following stocks show (in my modest opinion) positive technical signs: ES, AEE and POM; they are not high in the PascalList; but they have the attention of the large players.
The chart shows a positive trend for 20 days.
I tried to confirm my choice with BreakoutCalculator. I did not get a consistent result.
Is this a pullback or a breakout situation?
The calculator is missing the sensitivity option; would that help in deciding what the correct entry prize should be?
Hans van Vliet

Hi Hans,

Thank you for positing.

These three stocks are utilities. Utilities are doing better than the rest because their basic costs are down (Interest rates and energy). They are equities and thus get sold with the rest, but money tends to rotate back to them when the market is heavy. This is what EV is telling you for all three.



Now, whether to buy a breakout of a pullback, usually, you do not have breakouts on utilities. They are very slow moving stocks due to the higher dividends. So, basically, you would opt for buying a pullback.

I'll take the first on your list: ES

You can see below that ES is now at the top of its price envelope. Usually, this is not the best place to buy: you better buy on a pullback to the 5MA or even below the 5MA.



This is what the Stats below show: buying 1% below the 5MA gives good R/R. The negative aspect of that entry price,is that you only have 3.3% chance of hitting this entry price today.



The sensitivity analysis allows you to scan through different entries and see what works best for the stop you selected. You can see below that all green entries are below the 5MA. The red arrow show the closing price of yesterday. If you buy at the closing price of yesterday, you have a R/R lower than 1.



However, I agree with you that utilities are one of the best places to park money under the current market conditions.



Pascal