Daimond Offshore

[Pascal]

This is indeed a very interesting technical question.
Below is the supply chart for DRQ, which is also a driller.
This is a "standard" chart, where a move toward the NB would "stabilize" the supply, while a move down in price would increase the supply, because more investors will cut losses.



You will note that the stable supply level for DRQ is at $106, which is where DRQ will have regained its 50MA, as we can see below. Also, a move in the stable supply zone will mean that the price will have broken out of its descending trend line. This is where I intend to buy, but only if EV still shows accumulation.





DO is in the same business as DRQ, even though I do not know if either will profit from renewed investments in the Gulf. That is a separate issue. I wanted to show DRQ to be able to outline a comparison with DO. DRQ has had a pull-back below its 200MA and is in a down trend like DO is. However, DO has "broken down." DO's 50MA is well below its 200MA. This is a big difference between the two stocks: a large portion of the shareholders of DO are losing 25% or more.



As a consequence, they are "locked-in" and will start selling in relief when the price increases. You can see that as the price increases, a "fresh" supply of stocks will be unlocked.



This is due to the structure of the supply model: the supply model states that those who lose 25% or more do not offer their shares for sale.





Even though LEV is positive, it will take time to "eat" through the increasing supply. There are only two ways out: time to churn the float (about 6 months) or a big news related to the stock. For example, new orders for the Gulf or Icahn buying 5% and starting to tweet his position around.