Tim. Thanks for sharing this and your other work.

You mention "normal" circumstances, and I am wondering if your view is that the economy drives the stock market or if changes in the stock market drive the economy? It is something I've been thinking about lately. Also, I took a look at the historical unemployment rate going back to 1950. It seems that once things are booming and unemployment is low is the time to be selling. It was 3.8% in March 2000, not a good time for investors.

Could changes in US fiscal and/or economic policy change your model's outcomes?

I'm trying to get a better grip on economics, but it is a bit tedious.

Thanks again.