10/13/2013 Mousetrap

[Timothy Clontz]

Sector Model XLK 0.75%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -28.62% 184
TTM 5/6/2013 22.24% 159
BTI 7/1/2013 1.79% 103
VAR 8/2/2013 6.13% 71
QCOM 9/3/2013 1.92% 39
FLR 9/16/2013 8.59% 26
NEM 9/30/2013 -8.43% 12
BCR 10/4/2013 3.61% 8
BAX 10/7/2013 1.52% 5
BDX 10/11/2013 1.63% 1

(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 10.48%
Sector Model Annualized 24.04%
Large Portfolio Annualized 30.27%


From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com...akes-lead.html

Rotation: selling FLR; buying INT.

FLR is in the engineering and construction industry, while INT in the oil and gas industry. This is a move away from economic development to inflationary expectations – i.e. a late bull.

Of particular interest is the model’s recent cluster in medical inventory: VAR, BCR, BAX, and BDX. That’s a full 40% crammed into a single healthcare industry. Ordinarily this would be bearish, but I’m unable to determine how the Affordable Care Act is affecting this industry, and so it is impossible to tell how it relates to the market as a whole.

As I’ve noted before, this is not a natural market. We are caught between the threat of default and the promise of more helicopter drops of cash from Bernanke’s replacement – Janet Yellen (to be known in the future as “Yellicopter”).

For the market as a whole, then, there is no signal; there is only noise.

This environment favors stock selection over market timing.

The best industries to look through are:
GOLDSILV
AUTO
UTILEAST
UTILWEST
TOBACCO
REIT
MEDICINV
NWSPAPER
FURNITUR
OILGAS


And the Mousetrap’s best ranked stock between fundamentals and technical placement is NEM (which I currently own).

There’s not much else to say as long as the insanity in D.C. continues. And I’m not talking about the shutdown. That’s a symptom of a far larger problem the electorate has called upon ourselves.

I have more to say, but not tonight. Real life is calling…

Tim



PS For those not subscribed to the blog, please note the trade on Friday, which sold OUTR and bought BDX:

http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com...-rotation.html

[Timothy Clontz]

Sector Model XLK 1.09%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -28.50% 186
TTM 5/6/2013 22.24% 161
BTI 7/1/2013 2.60% 105
VAR 8/2/2013 6.48% 73
QCOM 9/3/2013 2.22% 41
FLR 9/16/2013 9.72% 28
NEM 9/30/2013 -8.01% 14
BCR 10/4/2013 4.66% 10
BAX 10/7/2013 2.26% 7
BDX 10/11/2013 1.58% 3

(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 10.64%
Sector Model Annualized 24.15%
Large Portfolio Annualized 30.46%

From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com...d-attempt.html

Rotation (second attempt): selling FLR; buying DECK.

INT moved out of the buy range on the opening gap. The new attempt is our old friend DECK (hopefully a better trade than last time).

Tim

[Timothy Clontz]

Sector Model XLK 1.46%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -23.36% 189
TTM 5/6/2013 17.06% 164
BTI 7/1/2013 5.58% 108
VAR 8/2/2013 7.31% 76
QCOM 9/3/2013 3.65% 44
NEM 9/30/2013 -3.29% 17
BCR 10/4/2013 6.87% 13
BAX 10/7/2013 3.43% 10
BDX 10/11/2013 2.90% 6
DECK 10/15/2013 -2.50% 2

(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 11.22%
Sector Model Annualized 24.56%
Large Portfolio Annualized 31.01%

Rotation: selling BTI; buying ED.

When your portfolio has ED, the party’s over…

Tim