Interesting Links

[ericoleman]

Hi group,

I found this particular link to be particularly interesting. It contains a wide assortment of interviews with various money managers discussing their respective strategies. Of note were the interviews of Mike Novogratz, Ping Jiang, and Danny Yong.

http://www.opalesque.tv/index.php

Best,

Eric

[ericoleman]

This link is for a recent interview with Stan Weinstein. He talks about his index of leading "glamour stocks" and his longer-term outlook. It is really quite a good interview and insightful, too.

http://www.financialsense.com/financ...ext-3-6-months

Best,

Eric

[ilonaross]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/bu...html?src=rechp

Happy Holidays.

[ilonaross]

I wanted to drop everyone a quick note and attach a link to a new book from the
folks at IBD entitled:

"How to Make Money in Stocks Success Stories: New and Advanced Investors Share
Their Winning Secrets" by Amy Smith.

The book can be purchased on Amazon at the following link.

http://www.amazon.com/Make-Money-Sto...ey+in+stocks#_

I am honored to be featured in a section of the book on what I believe is pages
123-126. I have not read the entire book yet but I heard Amy Smith has done a
fabulous job.

I have been quite busy the past few months, as my wife and I recently welcomed
our second child, Avery Reese. Nonetheless, once the New Year begins, I will be
writing more frequent market updates, (about two times a month).

For now I am maintaining high levels of cash and playing defense as many former
leaders continue to break down and/or form longer term tops. What looked like a
potentially promising rally a few weeks ago, is now beginning to look like a
rally that could fail soon. More on this in my next market update early next
week.

I wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday and New Year.

[ilonaross]

http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif

[Pascal]

Below is an eye opening figure regarding the evolution of corporate profits. This is a long-term view. Note that the left and right axes are inverted, which means that there is a strong inversed correlation between corporate profits as a share of GDP and the next 4 years average profit earnings growth.

This tells us that even though the market might go up some more, on a longer-term period, it will go down.

This Figure and the text comes from Hussman's weekly analysis.

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc130114.htm




hussman writes:

On the outlook for corporate profits

Presently, corporate profits as a share of GDP remain about 60-80% above their historical norm, depending on the measure one uses. Meanwhile, Wall Street is enthusiastic not only to take current price/earnings multiples at face value, but to extrapolate strong future rates of earnings growth. As a reminder of the reality that will predictably follow this mistake, the chart below shows the ratio of corporate profits to nominal GDP (left scale), along with the subsequent annual growth rate of corporate profits over the following 4-year period (right scale, inverted). Note that the inverted right scale means that higher values represent slower profit growth.

At present, current profit margins are consistent with earnings contraction over the coming 4-year period at something close to a -10% annual rate, implying a drop in corporate profits by more than one-third in the coming years (even assuming intervening growth in GDP). That sort of decline would be consistent with a normalization of profit margins, without taking them below their historical average. Investors who believe that stocks are “fairly priced” on the basis of “forward operating earnings” seem to have no appreciation of the extent to which depressed savings rates and massive government deficits have temporarily boosted corporate profits over the past few years

[xr-3609]

Each AM US this site gives a factual account of the previous evenings overseas gold market -

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

[engr_358]

Faber's comments and analysis from SeekingAlpha:

A pullback will be coming....the golden question is when and how deep will it be? EV combined with TA will be the tools to help us stay on the right side of the market. My problem has always been trying to anticipate the market and then getting burned. I've been right on the direction before , but my timing has been off. That's why I am attracted to EV analysis to improve my decision making and lower the market timing risks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1175...on-in-equities

[ilonaross]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/yo....html?src=recg

[Pierre Brodeur]

I came across this link which is a whitepaper on a new indicator the CBOE has created in order for traders to refine their VIX market timing signals

http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/docum...perjan2011.pdf