GDX Next Buy signal

[Pascal]

As can be seen below, as soon as the MF crosses over the Buy Limit level, a non-confirmed buy signal is produced, together with a confidence level.

As a reminder, this confidence level is a statistical measure of the probability that the intraday signal will be confirmed by the close. This probability is calculated using the distribution of MF variations every day in the past 1260 trading days at different period of a trading day. A confidence level higher than 90% indicates that "in the past 1260 days, 9 times out of 10, the MF variation until the end of the day was not strong enough for the signal to reverse back below the buy limit." A reversal back below the buy limit would cancel the buy signal.


Pascal

[Pascal]

As we can see below, the confidence level is still less than 2%. This is due to the fact that there is still a long time before the market closes. However, if 10 minutes before the close, the MF was still at about the same level (0.1%), then the confidence level would rise to 65% and then to 90.5% two minutes before the close.


Pascal

[Pascal]

With the confidence level higher than 75% 20 minutes before the close, I believe that we can close the short position and turn long.


Pascal

[pdp-brugge]

Pascal,

Could you publish an updated table with the GDX RT Strong Signals ?
Like table 3 on page 6 of your document published October 22 but updated with all the recent trades.
Is it possible to mark each trade in this table with the signal type: Bought, Bought Oversold, Shorted, Shorted Overbought ?

Thanks

PdP

[lisa]

pascal,

i love the new gdx rt! it seems very straightforward and easy to follow without needing a lot of background rules to remember. just wondering, is there supposed to be information in the "intraday signal" box at all times? there was information in it at one point but not presently.

thanks,
lisa

[Pascal]

pascal,

i love the new gdx rt! it seems very straightforward and easy to follow without needing a lot of background rules to remember. just wondering, is there supposed to be information in the "intraday signal" box at all times? there was information in it at one point but not presently.

thanks,
lisa

Thank you Lisa. I am still collecting data and writing a document to post in the next days.
The Intraday Signal is used only when there is a signal change during the day.
For example, we are now in a "Bought Protected" stage. if we cross below the short level during the day, then a non-confirmed short signal will be issued, and from that point on, as far as we stay below that short level, you will see a "confidence level" appear in that box.

When that confidence level is higher than a certain value (originally it was 90%, but we lowered it to 80%) then a "confirmed short" signal is issued and the Model status changes to "Short"

Also, you do not need to follow the model during all day. Just watching for the last 30 minutes will allow you to get the most important changes on which to act.


Pascal

[lisa]

great, thanks, pascal. i'll look forward to reading the document.

lisa

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Also, you do not need to follow the model during all day. Just watching for the last 30 minutes will allow you to get the most important changes on which to act.Pascal

Hi Pascal, With the RT now shorting and if one was in a long position, then checking in 30 min before the close, what action would you suggest if we appear to be closing in an unconfirmed RT short? Close the long position and go to cash?

Thanks, Dave

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal, With the RT now shorting and if one was in a long position, then checking in 30 min before the close, what action would you suggest if we appear to be closing in an unconfirmed RT short? Close the long position and go to cash?

Thanks, Dave

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.



Pascal

[davidallison@gmail.com]

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.

Pascal

It's interesting to watch it unfold. For daytraders, it seems if you take the RT signal, the question of closing or maintaning the position is answered in the confidence level. Thanks Pascal, Dave