Combo-MF, a simple and robust trading strategy ?!?

[Pascal]

As the numbers are for the moment, the 14MA of the S&P500 has been going down for two days. That is condition one.
The high of the day has been above the 14MA. That is condition two.
Condition three is a close below the open. If condition three unfolds, than we will have a SHORT signal for the VSTpro and my COMBO-MF will signal a SHORT signal.

PdP

Yes, but as far as I can tell, the 20DMF is not going to close below the -0.11% short level.
Hence, on an EOD base, it will stay neutral.


Pascal

[pdp-brugge]

Pascal,

I agree with you what the 20DMF concerns.
However, my statistics have shown that if the VSTpro is SHORT and the 20DMF is neutral, I will consider my COMBO-MF to be SHORT.
A confirmed 20DMF SHORT signal will make the odds even better.

PdP

[Pascal]

OK. I understand now. I thought that both needed to be short.

Pascal

[pdp-brugge]

It's going to be close if I look at the numbers now.
There is a lot of short covering now, I guess.
Let's wait and see at the final close today.

[pdp-brugge]

It was very close.
I will wait until I get my quotes downloaded but it looks like the VSTpro is SHORT as of now.
More in my post tomorrow.

[pdp-brugge]

Status MFs:
The VStpro model is LONG since June 6.
The 20DMF is NEUTRAL sine June 29.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since yesterday.

My current trades:
I have a LONG trade in TQQQ since July 2 and a LONG trade in SMN since July 9.
I will close the SHORT trade in GDX at the open today.

Possible changes:
The VSTpro is still LONG. It missed it's SHORT signal by $ 0.05. This was very close. Because the 14MA is still going down, the possibility of a SHORT signal for the VSTpro is huge. If the VSTpro goes SHORT and the 20DMF stays NEUTRAL, than the COMBO-MF will go SHORT.
The 20DMF is still NEUTRAL. As long as the the SHORT signal for the VSTpro is not issued and should meanwhile the 20DMF go SHORT, than the COMBO-MF will go to CASH.
If the 20DMF goes SHORT and the VSTpro also triggers the signal, then the COMBO-MF will go SHORT on a very strong signal.

Disclaimer: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next

[pdp-brugge]

Status MFs:
The VStpro model is LONG since June 6.
The 20DMF is NEUTRAL sine June 29.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since July 11.
The XLB MF is SHORT since July 6.
The XLI MF is SHORT since JUly 10.

Status Models:
Combo-MF : LONG
GDX : CASH
XLB : SHORT
XLI : SHORT

My current trades:
I have a LONG trade in TQQQ since July 2, a LONG trade in SMN since July 9 and a LONG trade in SIJ since July 11.

Possible changes:
The VSTpro is still LONG. There was yesterday no trigger because the high of the day was below the 14MA. Because the 14MA is still going down, the possibility of a SHORT signal for the VSTpro is still there. If the VSTpro goes SHORT and the 20DMF stays NEUTRAL, than the COMBO-MF will go SHORT.
The 20DMF is still NEUTRAL. As long as the the SHORT signal for the VSTpro is not issued and should meanwhile the 20DMF go SHORT, than the COMBO-MF will go to CASH.
If the 20DMF goes SHORT and the VSTpro also triggers the signal, then the COMBO-MF will go SHORT on a very strong signal.
My GDX model is in CASH because my statistics have shown that following a Bought Oversold signal while the 20DMF is in CASH is not profitable.

Disclaimer: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next

[pdp-brugge]

Status Strategy:
The VStpro model is LONG since June 6.
The 20DMF is NEUTRAL sine June 29.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since July 11.
The XLB MF is SHORT since July 6.
The XLI MF is LONG since July 13.

Status Models:
Combo-MF : LONG
GDX : CASH
XLB : SHORT
XLI : CASH

My current trades:
I have a LONG trade in TQQQ since July 2 and a LONG trade in SMN since July 9.
I will close my LONG trade in SIJ at the open today.

Possible changes:
The VSTpro is still LONG. The 14MA is going up again. Therefor a SHORT signal is not possible today.
The 20DMF is still NEUTRAL. If the 20DMF goes SHORT then the COMBO-MF will go to CASH because of the conflict between the two signals.
My GDX model is in CASH because my statistics have shown that following a Bought Oversold signal while the 20DMF is in CASH is not profitable.
My XLI model is in CASH because my statistics have shown that following a Bought signal while the 20DMF is in CASH is not profitable.

Strategy Status
In my third paper, published today, I have defined the position sizing techniques that I use for my trading. I have attached an image that gives an overview of the complete status of my strategy with signals and position size. Most of the information in this status-pane is clear, I think.

[pdp-brugge]

No changes for today

[pdp-brugge]

No changes for today