Nice post Mike.
I want to give a little contribution. http://screencast.com/t/WJ3vilLGqW
I know this picture is complex, but only important now is the gray box. That's my target for the es, so in the next about 10 days a price between 1200 and 1270. So, it could be the low is in, but I give it a few more days.
It is all based on cycles.

sjoerd