Quote Originally Posted by pdp-brugge View Post
I start this new thread because I have just viewed the last webinar from Dr. Elder.
Although Dr. Elder is normally bullish minded, in his latest webinar the tone was very clearly bearish.
He predicts that the current bull market (that started in 2009 and had 3 parts) has come to an end.
The last (third) part from this bull market started somewhere November last year and ended this week on Tuesday.
Dr. Elder is clear about it: we are going to face a bear market for minimum the next 6 months.
According to him, the presidential elections are a determining factor.
If Obama wants to get his reelection, he has got to do something to the economy.
The problems is that the FED is afraid to start QE3.
If Romney would get elected, then this bear market would come to an end.

I am a novice trader and had only 1½ year experience.
There are a lot of more experienced members in this forum.
I would like to hear their opinion.

PdP
PdP,

I think you did great work developing a variation/addition to Pascal's method with your combo-mf. You have backtested it -- and are now executing it in reality. I think Elder's and the others should have limited place in your mindset. Don't worry too much about the prognosticators -- "the method will win and not the opinion".

I personally execute my option method by the rules -- and allow me some 'smart' freedom to make discretionary decisions. For instance my method says to make an adjustment when my position delta hit a certain value. When hit - I might wait with the adjustment till we move - par example over a recent high. That way I am not making my adjustment and see the market take that as a sign to turn on it heels.

I learn from Billy over the years that he allows himself similar 'freedoms'.

Please keep posting your daily updates, maybe you can add a monthly recap of the results.

Thks,
Ernst