Discretionary trading.

[manucastle]

Pascal and Billy,

You have both intimated you are carrying out a bit of discretionary trading recently outside of the Robot signals.

Do you think you produce larger profits by doing so rather than just performing mechanical Robot trades ?

In my case, I have had some day trading success in the past but I am not entirely sure if it is luck or good management. ( I also have the fault of losing patience when out of the market for some time which I am trying hard to rectify). :O)

I think Mr Robot hates this whole European mess and has been very cleverly staying neutral so far. We shall see what tomorrow brings.

Trev

[Billy]

Trev,
Except for some trial shots like yesterday, I mostly trade discretionarily the leveraged portion of my robot positions. TNA and TZA have had average intraday/overnight moves of 12% lately and sound risk management policy forces me to discretionarily day trade only those explosive instruments.
On average, since the robots went online, my discretionary trades on unleveraged positions has badly underperformed the robots. The difficulty is that when the robot stays too long in cash and you get bored, you want some action and come back into the pool.
I am still psychologically in a transition phase from discretionary to mechanical trading, but the outstanding outperformance of the mechanical approach is reinforcing my determination to become 100% mechanical ASAP.
Billy

[manucastle]

Trev,
Except for some trial shots like yesterday, I mostly trade discretionarily the leveraged portion of my robot positions. TNA and TZA have had average intraday/overnight moves of 12% lately and sound risk management policy forces me to discretionarily day trade only those explosive instruments.
On average, since the robots went online, my discretionary trades on unleveraged positions has badly underperformed the robots. The difficulty is that when the robot stays too long in cash and you get bored, you want some action and come back into the pool.
I am still psychologically in a transition phase from discretionary to mechanical trading, but the outstanding outperformance of the mechanical approach is reinforcing my determination to become 100% mechanical ASAP.
Billy

Thanks very much Billy.

IMHO Jesse Livermore's quotes ring very true in this market and at this dangerous time for investors never more prescient :-

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I
want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was
my sitting'.

'First, do not be invested in the market all the time. There are many times when I have been
completely in cash, especially when I was unsure of the direction of the market and waiting
for a confirmation of the next move....Second, it is the change in the major trend that hurts most
speculators.'

'I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator;
that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on
the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game.'

Well worth reading through this list :-

http://leavittbrothers.com/chartspea...eak_040608.pdf

[manucastle]

Thanks very much Billy.

IMHO Jesse Livermore's quotes ring very true in this market and at this dangerous time for investors never more prescient :-

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I
want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was
my sitting'.

'First, do not be invested in the market all the time. There are many times when I have been
completely in cash, especially when I was unsure of the direction of the market and waiting
for a confirmation of the next move....Second, it is the change in the major trend that hurts most
speculators.'

'I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator;
that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on
the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game.'

Well worth reading through this list :-

http://leavittbrothers.com/chartspea...eak_040608.pdf

3 weeks in Jesse Livermore words are still ringing true !

Trev

[nickola.pazderic]

Trev,

I read the same quote a couple days ago. But when someone like Billy makes the claim that a 95% possibility of anything happening, I must break out my discretionary check book.

We're bouncing from $.02 above SS3.

Yours,

[manucastle]

Trev,

I read the same quote a couple days ago. But when someone like Billy makes the claim that a 95% possibility of anything happening, I must break out my discretionary check book.

We're bouncing from $.02 above SS3.

Yours,

Hi Nickola

Or is it next stop WS3 at 66.93 ?

Trev

[nickola.pazderic]

This is a big question, of course. And a 5% move below there is always possible. Call it risk!

VIX and Ticks. Not too bullshish..