Questions from a new member

[Pascal]

Good morning.
I received a few questions from a new subscriber.
As most of you know it, I always prefer to publicly respond to general questions sent to me privately.
Today - and for the whole week - however I have big time constraints which prevent me to post much.

I understand that Billy could easily respond, but I was thinking that maybe other members could respond too, or at least at this point, I'd expect that most members would know the answers to these questions.
Therefore, I will leave it to you to answer.

I would like to take this opportunity to welcome about ten new members who joined our Robot followers group last week.
Do not hesitate to ask questions, even questions that you feel might have been answered already.
It is better to ask questions and get answers than not asking them and then dropping out because you do not understand how the Robots work.


Pascal

The questions are below (screen image from my computer)

[quentin798]

Welcome to the Board!

There you go:

A1. The dates are displayed US-style (MM/DD/YYYY). So 10/5/2011 stands for October 5, 2011.

A2. The GDX robot is not in a long trade since August 10. The sentence "The GDX MF has been in BUY mode since 8/10/2011" refers to the GDX money flow as calculated by Pascal, not the GDX robot. The GDX money flow is an essential part of the robot but not a trading system by itself.
Currently, the GDX robot is in cash and doesn't detect any reason to change its stance ("The GDX robot is in neutral mode”; “No advised new position"). A new buy/short position would be signaled by the sentences: “The robot is currently looking for a long/short position” and “The robot will buy/short at the open. The stop level is x.xx % lower/higher than the entry price”.

[pdp-brugge]

1. I have looked at the documents “Trading_IVM.pdf” and “Trading_GDX.pdf”. These studies explain in depth the history of the two robots. They include in their annexes a history of trades from July 2007 until April 2011 – the date the reports were written. Are there files that contain the history of trades since then up until now and are they updated?

2. I bought the book (in classical paper format) “Value in Time” and started reading it. It is very technical (to my present knowledge) and it forces me to constant turn the pages. This because Pascal describes very thoroughly the case samples but most of the time the graphs are printed on different pages and I am constantly turning pages. I wonder if there exists a eBook version of this book and if I can have a copy of that eBook. Then I can print the pages with the graphs I need while reading the theory behind it.
I can prove that I bought the paper version!

For the rest: it is amazing that this groups exists!
I have been searching for a long time for support on the subject of trading and found it now so close to home: I’m also from Belgium!

[yakovcohen45]

Dear New Member,

Welcome to the board !

Following please find my answers to your questions:

1. History Files - The robot exist from March 2011 only. The performance results since 2007 were to back test the Robot performance and to adjust the Robot algorithm accordingly.

2. Ebook version - I searched in amazon site and found a Kindle version of the wondeful book "Value in Time". It costs someting around 30$.

Good Luck,

Yakov Cohen

[pdp-brugge]

Dear New Member,

Welcome to the board !

Following please find my answers to your questions:

1. History Files - The robot exist from March 2011 only. The performance results since 2007 were to back test the Robot performance and to adjust the Robot algorithm accordingly.

2. Ebook version - I searched in amazon site and found a Kindle version of the wondeful book "Value in Time". It costs someting around 30$.

Good Luck,

Yakov Cohen

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

[Riskslayer]

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

Hi-

I believe that understanding the performance of the Robots is extremely important to building confidence and belief in the system that will enable one to trade the signals and not second guessing the robot, trading too discretionarily, and other self-defeating trading habits. Once you know the basics, the correct mindset is the important aspect to trading.

The Oct 5, 2011 "IWM Robot Notes" and "GDX Robot Notes" give performance numbers from Mar 2011 through end of day Oct 4, 2011.

Since Oct 4, 2011 - there have been no GDX signals. On Oct 5, there was a Buy Signal on IWM at 65.23 that was in fact executed at the lower price of 64.78 on the open. That trade was closed on the open today (Oct 11) at 67.72.

As of Oct 11, 2011 (after the open) both robots are in cash.

http://www.effectivevolume.com/conte...October-5-2011

http://www.effectivevolume.com/conte...-for-October-5

Also, note from Aug 3-23, 2011, the IWM Robot was being modified and I don't believe tradings signals were being issued. Currently, Robot trades are not being initiated on NEUTRAL signals and are not part of the official Robot performance numbers. I am not sure if there were other modifications during the Aug period.

I tried to upload an .xls that I use to track the signals (I have redacted my positions).

Thanks,

Shawn

[Billy]

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

Thanks to all members for their excellent answers.

Pdp,

Welcome!
We will soon update and post the official robot track records.
I prefer to let Pascal do it because he has all the archives but I have not.
Billy

[Pascal]

Thanks to all members for their excellent answers.

Pdp,

Welcome!
We will soon update and post the official robot track records.
I prefer to let Pascal do it because he has all the archives but I have not.
Billy

Sorry for the delay.
I just returned to the trading desk and will update teh 20DMF in about 15 minutes.
The robots latest records are shown below (I did not update with this morning's exit price for IWM).


Pascal

[Normand]

Hi Pascal

Regarding the stats tables for both robots.

One suggestion I would make to avoid confusion would be to change the title "Exit Date" to "Signal Date" because the dates showned are the after the close "signal dates" and the "exit price" showned for those trades are actualy the OPEN price of the following day OR the Stop Loss "exit price". I discovered this trying to recompute your results on a spreadsheet.

I would also add a note for future publications indicating that the "Exit Price" is the OPENING PRICE of the day following a signal OR the STOP LOSS price on that date.

I would appreciate if you could supply your excel formula to compute the counpounded returns because I get some small discrepencies with my formula (it may be just a rounding issue).

Normand

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal

Regarding the stats tables for both robots.

One suggestion I would make to avoid confusion would be to change the title "Exit Date" to "Signal Date" because the dates showned are the after the close "signal dates" and the "exit price" showned for those trades are actualy the OPEN price of the following day OR the Stop Loss "exit price". I discovered this trying to recompute your results on a spreadsheet.

I would also add a note for future publications indicating that the "Exit Price" is the OPENING PRICE of the day following a signal OR the STOP LOSS price on that date.

I would appreciate if you could supply your excel formula to compute the counpounded returns because I get some small discrepencies with my formula (it may be just a rounding issue).

Normand

Yes Normand, you are right regarding the rounding issue: some entry prices carried more than two digits, because they were taken directly from the Robot's calculations. I corrected these to limit to two digits and indeed, there is a 0.01% change on the compounded returns.

I also followed your advised and chnaged the exit date title.


Pascal