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Things Apple is worth more than
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Re Pablo's link to interview with trader.
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Ed Hornstein's message of 10/4
I will have a full market update this weekend. However, I wanted to put out a
quick note to underscore two points.
First, and most important, is that high levels of cash and preserving capital
are key. In my past report, I discussed the characteristics that led me to
believe the market's rally off the August 8 lows was anything but a "fat pitch"
and lacked the power associated with a new uptrend. Since then, the market
indices have traded sideways, while institutions have rotated from sector to
sector distributing stocks en masse. It now looks plausible that the August 8
lows will be taken out and that another down leg in this bear phase is upon us.
While the mass media is now admitting this is a bear market, the market has
given us plenty of clues over the past few months that its tone was anything but
healthy. In fact, the tape is much worse than what the indices tell us- many
former leaders have fallen 50-75 percent while many financial and commodity
stocks are selling at levels not seen since the crash of 2008-09.
The bottom line is that we are in a bear phase for stocks, the market's trend is
down, and there continues to be serious damage and distribution almost every
day. Faced with these indisputable facts, preserving your capital, and
psychological capital is of utmost importance.
Second, while it is fruitless to predict how long the downtrend will last, the
good news is that this bear phase will end too. As we move lower, and selling
picks up, the doomsdayers will grow louder and louder that the world is ending.
The market has an incredible ability to forecast the future, so do not be
surprised when the market ultimately bottoms while all the news is bad. I can
promise you it will. I always maintain that these bear phases are a prudent
speculator's best friend- as they lay the foundations for future bull markets.
Our economy has survived many wars, political unrest, economic hardship, panics,
stock crashes, depressions etc. So to will it survive the various problems
facing it today. While significantly lower prices could be in store for the
market in the near future, a strong bull opportunity could arrive sooner than
people realize. (I will outline this over the weekend). While the negativity
is rampant as stocks go lower, remember the importance of preserving capital to
take advantage of the next giant opportunity that will most certainly emerge
from the depths of this bear market.
As always, please email me with any questions or comments.
This email was sent by Edward Hornstein, 60 east 42nd street, suite 1144, ny,
NY 10165, using Express Email Marketing.
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HFT, Volatility, Correlations, Leveraged ETFs, New Regulations
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/...rs_101711.html
Key Points
Market volatility has spiked, starting with 2010's flash crash and culminating in this year's wild August, bringing asset-class correlations up with it.
High-frequency trading and the use of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are the primary culprits, but the impact isn't all bad.
What are regulators doing and saying about the phenomenon?
Billy
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The failure of economic thinking/models by academicians; as relevant today as it was when it was written in 2009:
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/0...#axzz1bbhiuJpi
The readers' comments are also interesting and instructive.
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Humorous look at bank derivatives
http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/10/...k-derivatives/
Little humor on bank derivatives ..... thought I would share with EV group.
Enjoy!
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Can the robots really compete with this?
The upper bound for HF trading is the speed of light. It looks like we're about there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12827752
Neil
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Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility
Last edited by nickola.pazderic; 11-13-2011 at 01:47 AM.
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Veterans Day and Year-End Seasonalities
http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2011/1...seasonalities/
Conclusion(s): With Veterans Day behind us, we’re entering into the favorable year-end seasonality, and historically it had been even more favorable in the event the S&P 500 was (already) up year-to-date on the close of Veterans Day. Any short-term consolidation of the market’s recent gains right at the beginning of next week might provide a favorable buying opportunity for those with an intermediate term investment horizon (until the end of the year).
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New volatility indicator: the Skew
I came across this link which is a whitepaper on a new indicator the CBOE has created in order for traders to refine their VIX market timing signals
http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/docum...perjan2011.pdf
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