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09/20/2011
Condition Bear Market
S&P Target 970
Hedge XLE -0.72%
Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 5.28% 112 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 -5.69% 90 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -2.19% 85 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.64% 45 Closed
CLH 7/6/2011 3.77% 76 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -30.12% 68 Buy
AGO 8/5/2011 -12.67% 46 Hold
DISH 8/10/2011 23.07% 41 Hold
GTAT 9/8/2011 -28.92% 12 Hold
NA NA NA NA NA
Mousetrap Return -5.68%
S&P Return -6.00%
Hedged Return -6.32%
Mousetrap Annualized -32.47%
S&P Annualized -34.32%
Hedge Annualized -36.12%
Annualized Advantage 1.85%
Hedged Advantage -1.81%
The Mousetrap advantage has now been completely consumed by the Solyndra debacle’s effect on GTAT. The fundamentals remain strong, and the money flow has not supported the downward price move. So, there’s nothing to do but wait.
The only opinion that matters tomorrow, of course, is Bernanke’s – but only for the short term. Long term I don’t think there is any positive move he can make.
But my opnion doesn’t count tonight or tomorrow.
It’s Ben’s move now. I’m hedged, so it doesn’t much matter what he does either way…
Tim
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