No changes to the Mousetrap:

Condition Bear Market
S&P Target 970
Hedge XLE -1.35%

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 7.93% 112 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 -3.88% 90 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -1.96% 85 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.64% 45 Closed
CLH 7/6/2011 3.34% 76 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -26.89% 68 Buy
AGO 8/5/2011 -11.14% 46 Hold
DISH 8/10/2011 23.21% 41 Hold
GTAT 9/8/2011 -22.81% 12 Hold
NA NA NA NA NA

Mousetrap Return -3.98%
S&P Return -5.86%
Hedged Return -5.18%

Mousetrap Annualized -22.77%
S&P Annualized -33.51%
Hedge Annualized -29.63%

Annualized Advantage 10.74%
Hedged Advantage 3.88%

But a word about Jackson Hole...

There is a large expectation of another round of quantitative easing. If operation twist is enacted, or something like it, I expect two things to happen:

1) the market to briefly spike upwards in anticipation of a repeat of last year.
2) the market to plummet because this is not last year.

Last year Bernanke lowered the dollar.

That lowering of the US dollar caused massive inflationary surges in the third world, destabilizing whole regions and causing the revolutionary "Arab Spring" from mobs who couldn't afford food and would rather face bullets than slow starvation.

More importantly for investors, however, the Bernanke put caused the Euro to rise in comparison, creating a deflationary imbalance that tipped debtor nations in Europe over the edge as the real value of their debts increased and their ability to compete in international markets plunged.

Europe IS the problem this year. Another round of quantitative easing -- or even a hint at it -- would cause the European dominoes to fall.

This is NOT last year.

Tim