Mousetrap 8/20/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

Condition Bear Market
S&P Target 970
Hedge XLE -1.23%

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 2.10% 85 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 -3.52% 63 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -6.05% 58 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.64% 45 Closed
CLH 7/6/2011 -6.93% 49 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -23.95% 41 Hold
AGO 8/5/2011 -4.61% 19 Hold
DISH 8/10/2011 -0.61% 14 Buy
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
Mousetrap Return -5.90%
S&P Return -9.52%
Hedged Return -6.98%

Mousetrap Annualized -46.11%
S&P Annualized -74.41%
Hedge Annualized -54.51%

Annualized Advantage 28.30%
Hedged Advantage 19.89%


I’m still looking for that bounce (for admittedly anecdotal reasons):

1) The technology sector, XLK, has been accumulating a lot of positive volume – trouncing all of the other sectors by a significant margin.
2) That, and the fact that I added my hedge at what SHOULD be the worst possible time, makes me think this will be such a strong bounce that people will think the bear market never started (and I’ll even be itching to unload that hedge).

Len Mansky, however, tells me that he doesn’t think we’ll break the previous highs from earlier this month.

I’ll defer to him on the short term.

LONG TERM THIS IS A BEAR MARKET.

Do not be fooled by any bounces out there.