GGT + EV + IBD50 Matrix

[grems8544]

In my weekly analysis, this chart is an intermediate step in my overall sequence, so I thought I'd start posting it here for the CANSLIM readers.

Refer to the image below. Right-click on it to open in a new tab or to save to your disk.

On the left we have the symbols, sorted alphabetically.

The left area of the table is the GGT recommendations of the IBD50 stocks. Generally, if "red", caution is advised, and if "green", chances are that it's outperforming its historical averages.

In the middle is Pascal's EV snapshot of the IBD50.

On the right is what Briefings.com has to say in terms of earnings guidance for the specific stock. Note that carrying any of these stocks across earnings announcement dates is dangerous, and it's more likely that if the stock is "guiding down" that you probably shouldn't even attempt to carry across an announcement.

Regards,

pgd

Here's the file for your own manipulation; you'll have to unzip it first. Load into Excel for the best performance: 11JUN03-GGT+EV-IBD50.zip

[asomani]

If you can post this each week, Paul, it would be great - especially if it's already part of your routine.

I think it is useful for those considering long candidates during a market rally.

Thank you.

[grems8544]

Sorry for the delay in posting this; I've been traveling the past 4 days and returned home late last evening.

=====================

Here is the updated table of GGT + EV stocks for this week's IBD 50:



I've sorted the list in terms of GGT recommendations so that you can see the overall stocks that have fared well up until the close of business on June 10th.

Some stocks are not in the EV universe; those stocks are shown with "NA".

Some stocks do not provide earnings guidance; those stocks are shown as "no guidance" and the last date they were (manually) checked.

My personal belief is that we want stocks that are guiding higher in terms of earnings, revenues, or both (shown in green to the right), or are minimally guiding "inline". Longer-termed holdings that are issuing guidance downward is a warning sign.

I also think it important to pick stocks that have favorable AB levels at the time of entry, and that are showing positive shorter-term money flow and extension values.

The full file is listed below in ZIP format -- download to a directory, extract the file, and then open in Excel to manipulate/sort as you desire.

IBD50-11JUN10.zip

Regards,

pgd

[grems8544]

Here's the latest snapshot of the IBD50:



Here's an Excel file that you can manipulate:

IBD50-11JUN24close.zip

Relatively unimpressive set of 50 stocks, in my opinion. There are diamonds in the coal that are near support levels, which is encouraging IF the support levels hold, but if support fails then this list will turn further downward.

Before you leap:

• review the movie that I created and which Pascal has made available on using buy sectors and stocks within those buy sectors
• check the sector/group EV, and ensure that you're seeing an influx of money flow to the sector/group
• check the AB % level in the individual chart that Pascal provides. If the AB level is not increasing (becoming less negative), e.g., if a short-term slope is not pointing upward, then pass on the stock.
• check the 2d thrust, and ensure that money flow into the stock is positive, not negative

Some testing that I do, that is not discussed here, is showing that on rallies, that the market is favoring stocks with poor GGT ratings as well as poor EV ratings, ostensibly due to short covering and shorting the rallies. Keep a list of IBD stocks that are getting pummeled, as well as those that are holding up well.

Let's hope for a good week due to anticipated window dressing of the month, quarter, and semiannual periods.

Regards,

pgd

[Pierre Brodeur]

review the movie that I created

The link does not work !!!

[grems8544]

The movie is here; I've also fixed it in the original reference below.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Regards,

pgd

[grems8544]

Here's the latest combo matrix for the latest IBD50, updated with GGT and EV values:



Note that the following have favorable AB values above 69:
TIBX
HLF
AH
HS
BIIB
PRGO
ALTR
ILMN
ACOM
CHSI
ARMH
HUM
TZOO
SWI
EW
NTES
SRCL

Note that the following have strong selling occurring:
FOSL
AH
INFA
SWI

Note that the following are seeing a short-term influx of money flow:
AGP
PCLN
APKT
TSCO
BIDU
ARUN
DLTR
VMW
ACOM
DECK
HANS
CHKP
TZOO
EW
FTNT
SRCL

As always, check the slopes of the 20d TEV on these, ensure that the pricing slopes are in an uptrend, and more often than not, ensure that GGT has some form of "long" rating on the equity.

If you want a copy of this file for your own manipulation, drop me a note at pduncan [at] vt [dot] edu with the words "DROPBOX" in the subject line and I'll send you an invite to my shared directory on dropbox that contains the file. Note that it's big, and I'd rather not tie up EV forum resources with a 38MB file ...

Make it a great weekend!

Paul

[Pascal]

Great job Paul!

I just noted your remark about FOSL attrcting sellers, which is true.
The stock is extended and in the past it has pulled back when extended and formed a new base.
I would not be a buyer here, but would wait for a pull-back to the 50MA or I would wait for a base to form before buying.

As a rule, extended stocks would see large players selling (taking some profits out of the table). this does not mean that the stock is going to collapse and shorting it here is not advised.

My rule is to disregard EV in such circumstances, but look at what large players are doing when the stock is pulling back into a support zone.



Pascal

[grems8544]

Great observation Pascal.

This brings up a significant concept though -- it's REALLY important to continue to look at candidate stocks for further consideration. It's impossible for me to look at every GGT stock that I post, let alone those that screen down to favorable/unfavorable EV. While I attempt to give many a quick review, I'm on travel right now doing all of this on a little laptop, and unfortunately, my 32" screens are a LONG way from me. Hence, I cut corners simply because I have to.

There is no substitute for the ability to read a chart -- the only thing that the GGT + EV tools can do is help narrow the universe to "good" candidates.

Regards,

pgd

[grems8544]

I have not posted this for some time, although it's available in the daily dashboard worksheet in the shared Dropbox:



Most of these are below their historical outperformance levels and on a pure GGT basis, have not started to move upward. Those that are ranked "long" are above their historical levels but a quick check of money flow shows that most money is exiting, so I would anticipate a further drop in price and a move to "cash" for these stocks.

Although most of these have poor EV chart patterns, I am watching the 2d thrust and extension values, as combined positive movement here could show early emergence if we decide to rally. BKE is one such candidate, but as you might imagine, there are few to choose from off the IBD 50 list.

Regards,

pgd