IWM Robot: NEUTRAL?

[Billy]

Just a quick note to precise that the robot will mechanically enter a new short position today if the 85.13 entry limit is hit during market hours.
That's because the robot is programmed to blindly follow even the slightest edge when the 20 DMF is back in neutral mode.
This may turn out to be an excellent trade, but, for full disclosure,both Pascal and I agree that we ( most probably) won't enter the new short trade today for our own accounts.
The very thin edge left on the short side could easily be wiped out today with another strong money flow day.
In such a case, the robot might be looking for an optimal long entry as early as tomorrow and probably on some dip or pullback. I believe it was fair to let you know of such a whipsaw risk.
Billy

[grems8544]

Ahhhh... the slippery slope of discretionary interpretation of mechanical systems. I suffer daily (hourly? constantly?) from such dilemmas....

As I am forward testing the robots, I have mechanically placed my limit order and OTO stop order and will cast fate to the wind.

Thanks for the head's up Billy.

[Pierre Brodeur]

Just a quick note to precise that the robot will mechanically enter a new short position today if the 85.13 entry limit is hit during market hours.

Just a few cents away from a great day trade as with hindsight yesterday's high would have been a great entry point. Ah hindsight...!
What is of interest to me here is that IWM has been demolishing the estimated First Support cluster for today even breaking through dma50 on its way to DS3. I realize that there is some Weekly and Quarterly support below but it does not appear strong or does it?

With your multi year experience using clusters, I think I would enjoy, at your convenience, how you see today evolving as a tutorial after your initial tutorial post, if you have the time, which perhaps you may have given your current neutral stance

[EB]

Since TradeStation supplies bar by bar volume made on uptick vs downticks, it is relatively easy to manipulate these statistics. Below shows a 203 min. chart (cutting the day in half), with up - down volume in the subgraph and stdev bands with length 20 at 2 std devs. The current configuration of hitting the upper stdev band, then the lower one the next bar has only happened once in the last 10 years, over Nov 6 and 7, 2007. It happened in the reverse (down to up) 6 times. Though a small sample size overall, these reversals tend to get continuation in the direction of the second bar.

Update:

[Billy]

Just a few cents away from a great day trade as with hindsight yesterday's high would have been a great entry point. Ah hindsight...!
What is of interest to me here is that IWM has been demolishing the estimated First Support cluster for today even breaking through dma50 on its way to DS3. I realize that there is some Weekly and Quarterly support below but it does not appear strong or does it?

With your multi year experience using clusters, I think I would enjoy, at your convenience, how you see today evolving as a tutorial after your initial tutorial post, if you have the time, which perhaps you may have given your current neutral stance

Pierre,
There is nothing much else to say than IWM followed its path of least resistance, refusing to test the strong first resistance cluster (strength of 24) and breaking abruptly the whole weaker first support cluster (strength of 12). It could not even hold for more than a few minutes at the 50 dma, a sign that institutional players were not waiting in ambush for a buying opportunity at their favorite entry level.
Now, the second support cluster (strength of 10) is already penetrated. Weekly pivot (82.78) is a potential intraday and intra-week bottom area, otherwise, there will be no support before Quarterly pivot (81.80).
I am amazed by how treacherous all technical signals are currently and by how well the robot behaves under such conditions. Happy to be and stay in cash.
Billy