Trying to understand the performance of the 20DMF graph

[slgerritz]

This question is for anyone with a good understanding of the 20 DMF timing model.

In viewing the 20 DMF main market direction chart it appears that the signals have indicated that most of the time from 10/20/2010 til the present the chart has suggested that we should either have been short or in cash. The only long position that was suggested was from roughly 03/20/2011 to 04/07/2011. During the period of time covered from the beginning to the end of the chart the S&P 500 has netted over +100 points. Am I reading this correctly?

[happy]

Hello. If you download the iwm trading pdf, there is an 'chart' showing each of the direction changes and the dates each are called over the past few years. There are definitely more directional 'calls' than what you are seeing.

[Pascal]

This question is for anyone with a good understanding of the 20 DMF timing model.

In viewing the 20 DMF main market direction chart it appears that the signals have indicated that most of the time from 10/20/2010 til the present the chart has suggested that we should either have been short or in cash. The only long position that was suggested was from roughly 03/20/2011 to 04/07/2011. During the period of time covered from the beginning to the end of the chart the S&P 500 has netted over +100 points. Am I reading this correctly?

I believe that your reading of the main chart is not entirely correct. Out of this same chart, since 8/27/2010, the 20DMF model has generated 175 long days, 47 Short days and the rest were market direction neutral days. I posted a few days ago a file with all the 20DMF directional calls.




Pascal