AAII Sentiment Survey

[Billy]

I usually don't give much weight to sentiment indicators. But today's update did strike me as being equivalent to the ratios last seen end of August and early September, just before a major bull run.
This could be very supportive of the next 20 DMF or robot buy signals, or a CANSLIM follow-through day. Billy

"Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 4.1 percentage points to 26.7% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the lowest level of optimism since August 26, 2010. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially unchanged over the next six months, slipped 1.7 percentage points to 32.0%. Nonetheless, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31% for the fifth consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 5.8 percentage points to 41.3%. This is the highest level of pessimism since September 2, 2010. It is also the 12th time in 13 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%."

[Andrei]

Yes Billy, but that time around there was completely different picture in stages, wans't it? As far as I can recall, accumulation was clearly shown by you in daily and weekly setup stages.

Regards

[Billy]

Yes Billy, but that time around there was completely different picture in stages, wans't it? As far as I can recall, accumulation was clearly shown by you in daily and weekly setup stages.

Regards

Not at all. We were actually in the same area for daily stages scores and in negative territory for weekly stages scores. What was really different back then was the start of QE2.
Billy

[adam ali]

Billy,

Mark Hulbert has a different take on sentiment:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how...=home_carousel

Can you recall whether this indicator (now bullish to a contrarian) was bearish back in August?

[adam ali]

Sorry, I got the sentiment on this survey backwards. It's currently bearish (too many advisors bullish).

[Billy]

Sorry, I got the sentiment on this survey backwards. It's currently bearish (too many advisors bullish).

The AAII is the American Association of (retail) Independent Investors and has nothing in common with Hulbert's professional advisers surveys.
Billy

[adam ali]

Billy, I understand they are different. From my understanding, the II survey was bullish back in August 2010 (i.e., advisors were overly bearish) whereas today, as Hulbert writes, they are overly bullish (bearish as a contrarian).