The market opened little changed yesterday and then sold off into negative territory, where it spent most of the session. All the major averages finished low in their intraday trading ranges with the COMPQ and the NDX declining .74% and .49% respectively. The SPX fell 1.10%. The small and mid-cap averages were hit much worse. Volume was higher across the board, as would be expected for an expiration day, but it still showed distribution in all the major averages. Leading stocks were lower as well with the leaders index losing 1.97% on the day. The index closed high in its trading range on higher and above average volume. The market gave back a good chunk of Thursday’s gains in negative action. Th higher volume can be explained by yesterday being an expiration day, but it was still another down day on higher volume. The SPX fell back below its 200dma that it recovered on Thursday on higher volume, negative action. The market is struggling here and can’t seem to generate any upside action. We are clearly still in a bottoming process and the market is not ready to stage any real solid upside action. The banking situation seems to be calming down a bit and that will help, but another bank failure could reignite it. The Fed meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with the announcement on Wednesday. The Fed will likely go 25 basis points and then there is a good chance it will pause there to see if the already made rate increases will slow the economy enough. They will be cautious as they don’t want a real banking crisis. I suspect the market will bounce up and down for a while until it can find a real bottom. At that point the market can begin a meaningful rally. Jerry
Reply With Quote