After a strong initial rise in PM Money flow until 11:45 am, large players reversed their plan and MF kept weakening until the close with GDX price making new YTD lows. If this is good news for EOD GDX robot traders who are still short and can trail their stop lower to 52.57, RT traders who are already long have some reason to worry. Maybe the quick intraday visit below the -1.45% oversold level on March 14 was too shallow to confirm a final capitulation.

It is impossible to know yet how it will evolve, but I feel nervous with my leveraged long position and a good lesson for me is to consider smaller position sizes for RT trades when they are out of sync with the EOD robot. I should have listened to Dave who warned about this in another thread! With an unleveraged position, I wouldn’t worry much waiting for an average of 2 more days before potentially exiting with a loss if the -1.45% OS threshold is revisited. But I can’t run the risk of letting my 3x leveraged NUGT compounding losses at the speed of light and will respect my initial “comfort level” stop below GDX 49.42.

From the multi-pivot perspective, the next capitulation target in case of a new selloff is Monthly S3 (47.50) and there is only the very weak Weekly S1 (48.66) to act as a speed bumper in-between. On the other hand, if yesterday’s lows are just a shakeout from the consolidation preceding a fast and furious advance to the upside, I expect Monthly S1 (52.75) to be the most logical upside target.
There is still no advised position in IWM.
Billy

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