Quote Originally Posted by mscott View Post
I missed the short taking opportunity that presented itself last week. I was too focussed on the long side, a mistake.
Ditto, but...

... hindsight is 20/20.

It's difficult to go short when the underlying trends, specifically the longer ones, were still long. To whit my 5d/65d timer did not go to cash until 11/17, and the intermediate termed Elder Force Index timer didn't flip until 11/16. Both of these timers have been subject to whipsaws in the present market and waiting to "see what was going to happen" actually is prudent.

11/18 only was a "down" day as far as -0.07%, so it's hard to use that day as a compelling reason to move short.

11/21 was solidly down, only to see some attempt at a recovery on very light volume on Tuesday, 11/22. 11/23 was down, but not overly clear intraday. Again, making a case to go short was difficult, but certainly becoming easier.

My contra ETF index has solidly shown that there has been no opportunity to get in on the downside, but historically, with such strength down side (6 solid days of the GGT database strength falling), we are prime into oversold territory and prone to a bounce of unknown duration and magnitude.

While I agree completely that the macro, longer-termed trend is down, I expect to see a bounce here, especially with the rapidity that we approached these oversold levels. You'll get your opportunity to short, and for me, it will manifest itself in a rise in the markets, with my finger on the contra ETF triggers...

Happy Thanksgiving Mr. Scott. I appreciate what you teach here.

Regards,

pgd