11-24 comments
I hope everyone enjoys the down time on the Thanksgiving holiday.
The market is mired deeply into a correction and possibly making is second wave down in an overall bear market. If and when the neckline is broken the Head and Shoulders pattern will be complete. As to the possibility that there is an inverse heand and shoulders pattern, only price, volume and time will tell what will unfold. It doesn't matter what path the market will take. We will be ready in any event. The Market School trend following model impressively navigated the last rally and got us out right on schedule. We don't expect a new long opportunity for at least 4 days and it could be a long time. We wait for a rally attempt and then on day 4 of the advance or later we look for a day that closes up at least 1.25% on volume higher than the day before. This is our follow-through day signal to reenter long. I believe Pascal's 20-day money flow perhaps gives an earlier entry possibility when he can confirm that it is real buying and not primarily short covering. As far as playing the short side, I personnaly will wait for a rally attempt and possible failure before entering short.
This is one of those times where it does not pay for me to be in the market at all. I missed the short taking opportunity that presented itself last week. I was too focussed on the long side, a mistake.
Mike Scott
Cloverdale, CA