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Uup
Pascal,
To put this subject to bed, can we say it is very doubtful that we will get a US Dollar Robot for those of us, not US based, who would find it extremely useful ?
Thanks in advance.
Trev
From: pascal willain
Sent: Sunday, May 08, 2011 12:38 PM
To: t.wilkinson1@btinternet.com
Cc: value-in-time@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: UUP
Thank you for your enthusiasm Trevor.
It is always good to receive positive feed-back.
In reality, I have found it very difficult to "predict" currencies movements through EV analysis.
Currencies is basically what makes things move around, since it is the most widely used mean of goods and service exchange. Probably 99.9999999999% of all goods and services are exchanged using currencies.
So, for me using the EV pattern on UUP or the US$ futures is like finding a part of the bone of a dinosaur and trying to deduct anything useful about dinosaurs.
The currencies markets are soooo much bigger than UUP and the US$ e-mini futures.
I attach a few figures that show how difficult such analysis can be. On April 21, I showed the EV pattern of the US$ futures. My conclusion was that EV detected the price move twice in the past four occurrences. Hardly a high success rate. And we all know that the US$ fell down to 73 afterwards.
Then, on May 3, I was already showing the UUP pattern, together with a US$ futures that did not show anything.
My conclusion is that in hindsight, I can prove anything. Only statistical analysis is the answer.
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