Market

[Pascal]

Market relatively directionless today.

I had been expecting some reversal to the mean in interest rates, but even though the 10Y Treasuries are bouncing, this bounce does not attract money. hence, it could be short-lived.

I guess that we are moving toward an end of the year activity where tax loss selling activities might put a cap on future gains. I still think that investors will be afraid to stay invested during the earnings season of January, especially is rates and the US$ stay elevated.

Pascal

[RalphR]

The Santa Claus rally usually ends 12/31 with a downward bias till 1/21. If we continue to rise during this period, that's bullish and will set the tone till May. I was one told that if you want to prognosticate, prognosticate often.

[PeterR]

Hello RalphR,

I like seasonal analysis.

Sadly strong predictive tendencies are rare.

More elaborate analyses is possible, but here is what TOS throws out on the go:

SPX charts with the yearly average for 5 years, 10 years and 20 years.
Red = SPX average
blue = SPX current year

I think 5 years is most helpful because it covers the rally from 2008 on.
( TOS does not give me 7 years - the optimum to see the rally after 2008)

SPX 5Y


SPX 10Y


SPX 20Y


Peter

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Update: I just realized that Pascal wrote about seasonals in today's comment. http://www.effectivevolume.com/conte...cember-20-2016