no TLB in today's nearly unchanged RTH session.
But I looked into the asia- and EU-session separately:
Overnight in asia is mostly flat since start of the year.
Overnight during Europe session is mostly negative.
Conclusions:
1.
If one plans to go long SP500 futures, look for a potential pullback during the EU-session
2.
This is not clearly visible in the charts,
but multiple times in the last days a measured move target (based on some RTH move) was hit during the asia session - and afterwards we got the EU-pullback.
We had some selling rth.
Probably tested the steeper trend line from below.
I don't know how much weight we should give to the daily developments.
IMO key is to spot a change in the general behavior of buying during RTH but selling ON.
This would be a hint that some key players change their behavior for a while.
Pascal identified the NIRP-refugees as a likely dominant group.
I would add pension funds within the US doing something similar to NIRP-refugees: hunting for yield in US equities - or stop doing so for a while.
Aswath Damodaran gives us some equity yield numbers (Implied EquityRiskPremium):
Implied ERP on June 1, 2016=5.03% (Trailing 12 month, with adjusted payout), 6.12% (Trailing 12 month cash yield); 6.16% (Average CF yield last 10 years); 5.54% (Net cash yield); 4.66% (Normalized Earnings & Payout)
Last edited by PeterR; 06-18-2016 at 01:48 PM.
A 2th buying RTH session.
The Brexit event is nearly invisible now.
more RTH buying today.
yesterday night the market decided against my overnight odds (seasonality based).
We had strong Asia and Europe sessions.
I interpret this as relative strength.
a RTH buying session.
A tight trading range on the high.
This tilts the odds bullish to me.
some RTH selling