Hi Pascal,
why did you choose 150 for 'Days for probability evaluation'?
Regards
Jarek
Hi Pascal,
why did you choose 150 for 'Days for probability evaluation'?
Regards
Jarek
Very good question indeed.
The stock came up as a short potential from the negative divergence scan.
The question is "how do I test the short trade"? What is the hypothesis that I want to test.
As you can see below, BWLD is in a sort of C&H pattern that broke some days ago.
To test the break, I need to see how the stock acted during the downtrend of the left side of the Cup, because the break would probably follow the same pattern.
The Breakout Calculator used the 50MA as long-term average. this means that a test of a short on a bounce while the price stays below the 50MA would have me tested all the prices below the green 50MA line, which is what I need.
150 days capture all these prices.
Pascal
This is what the stats show. But the stats also shows that the probability for the price to reach more extended levels is lower too. This means that if we wait too long for the best prices, then we might miss a good trade.
Then it is up to the trader to decide: "I want the perfect trade" or "I am ok with just a good trade"
This all depends on your portfolio situation, the way you trade,... this depends on you.
No stat will take the trade. The trader must take the trade and live with it.
Pascal