Market

[Pascal]

If we look at the longer term, we can see that large players are not selling.
This is probably due to the Fed's message of "no rate hike".

On the other hand, today's activity shows that price and MF move in lock-steps.
Timing is everything. I suspect that traders will bounce the market this afternoon as we all expect some Fed/ECB nice words to try help markets higher.



Pascal

[PeterR]

good call - it bounced :) (at least for the afternoon)

Maybe tomorrow's (weak?) EMU PMI numbers will give the ECB reason to hit the news wires.

[adam ali]

Pascal,

I see the longer-term S&P 500 MF chart on the front page shows a very positive trend since the August bottom even as price declines / moves sideways. One would think that soon price has to reverse back up and get back in synch with the direction of the money flow. However, the chart also indicates we're at or near a point where money flow in the past has turned back down (near the +0.5% level).

What is one to take from this? To me, it's an indication the market can't get out of its own way, even as MF is quite positive, and that when MF does turn back down, look out below.

Thoughts?

Adam

[Pascal]

Pascal,

I see the longer-term S&P 500 MF chart on the front page shows a very positive trend since the August bottom even as price declines / moves sideways. One would think that soon price has to reverse back up and get back in synch with the direction of the money flow. However, the chart also indicates we're at or near a point where money flow in the past has turned back down (near the +0.5% level).

What is one to take from this? To me, it's an indication the market can't get out of its own way, even as MF is quite positive, and that when MF does turn back down, look out below.

Thoughts?

Adam

Yes, you have the two type of analyses. Both are correct and only the future will tell.
However, the best is to trade the most probable outcome (a bounce) and then, if the outcome fails develop as expected, then you cut the positions.

This is exactly what happened to me today: I was 80% long and then when the market reverted back down (due to oil pushing lower,) I had to slowly exit some positions and then exit everything for a total loss on the portfolio of 0.17%.



Pascal