Long TNA

[Pascal]

Thanks for the thorough explanation, Pascal.

A bit off topic, I've been surprised that the MF for the S&P 500 doesn't appear to show much selling, i.e., the line isn't heading down as much as I would expect given price action. Do you take this as a sign the big boys aren't selling into this decline, OR, is there much more selling to come?

I would say that this market is well controlled for now.
The epic reversal of today tells us that there is no real fear of a collapse.

The weak US$ is even a relief for investors (that was the major issues for future earnings)


Pascal

[adam ali]

I would say that this market is well controlled for now.
The epic reversal of today tells us that there is no real fear of a collapse.

The weak US$ is even a relief for investors (that was the major issues for future earnings)


Pascal

Well controlled is a great way to put it:

From Jeff Hirsch a day or so ago:

Following yesterday’s solid, one-plus percent across-the-board gains, today’s across the board loss of nearly equal magnitude is a clear reminder that volatility tends to really begins to pick up in August. In an average year, VIX typically reaches a low in July and then begins to steadily climb toward a high sometime during October and then to decline once again.

Since VIX does not measure actual volatility (daily price moves), let’s compare it to actual daily price swings of the S&P 500 since 1950. August has the third highest percentage of days +/- 1%. October has the most which matches the 1-year seasonal pattern above.

This historical data suggests the market has just begun its most volatile four-month span of the year, August through November. There are likely to be many more days like today, and yesterday, in coming weeks.