Quote Originally Posted by ilonaross View Post
Mike, I follow HD also.

Question: How accurate has he been in the past? Both in absolute terms and in timing terms?

tnx, ilona
Forecasting markets is a tough business. They might as well carry a big sign around saying "Kick Me". Demographics is a blunt tool and as far as short term forecasting difficult to use. He has been right on the major direction calls such as the bull market in the 1990's when many people were looking for a depression. He was right on Japan in 1989 when everyone else thought they would continue to soar economically. He was right in 2007. He was wrong as to the magnitude of the peak of the Dow in 2000 but right on the direction. Since he missed the magnitude he made discovery as to why (something to do with death rates) so I applaud his ability to be critical of his own calls.

In general I think demographics can be a useful tool to align ourselves with the secular winds or provide rationale as to why a sector is acting like it is.