4-15-2013 Comments

[Mike]

I have been away on holiday in New Mexico so haven't made comments lately. Opinions in cyberspace are ranging all over the place with many bulls believing that we are in a long term bull regime. Hmmm, don't know here but history points perhaps to a different conclusion. It is easy to be wrong right now because the FED phenomena is indeed unusual historically. I just let price and volume tell me what to do.

On Thursday while driving I asked my wife to log into my accounts and sell my last two long positions (CELG and V). This morning I shorted ALXN near the open at 99.90. We seem to be in a risk-off regime. In IBD top of page A13 are two small charts. One shows small cap funds lagging large cap funds and the other shows value funds out performing growth funds (by a small margin). These are not what I would like to see for robust CANSLIM investing.
I am sure you have all seen that precious metals are in full sell mode. They are as oversold as I have seen in a long time. I could be that a deflationary scenario is playing out. If the FED loses to this scenario it portends a lower stock market and maybe a more active FED.

Shorting in an active FED environment may not play out. I let my own portfolio show me the way.

[Pascal]

You are right Mike, sometimes it is better to be safe and then reconsider the market while in cash.
The selling in the PM sector and commodities in general is indicative of a deflationary move.
The 20DMF is rather negative today as price bounces are sold into.



Pascal

[Mike]

You are right Mike, sometimes it is better to be safe and then reconsider the market while in cash.
The selling in the PM sector and commodities in general is indicative of a deflationary move.
The 20DMF is rather negative today as price bounces are sold into.



Pascal

Attachment 18003

Without an end of day rally it looks like the MarketSchool model will end up in cash. We have undercut the FTD lows (S1) and undercut the 21-day ema (S5) sell signals.
I timed my long exit and short entry about right. It doesn't always work this way and the day isn't over yet.