03/10/2013 Mousetrap

[Timothy Clontz]

Sector Model XLI 2.14%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
BBRY 7/16/2012 115.86% 240
SEAC 9/25/2012 43.94% 169
CAJ 9/25/2012 4.68% 169
CFI 10/31/2012 41.59% 133
RE 11/26/2012 22.89% 107
BOKF 2/4/2013 8.78% 37
SWM 2/12/2013 5.01% 29
GMCR 2/19/2013 23.02% 22
OKE 2/25/2013 -4.72% 16
TTM 3/4/2013 6.32% 9

S&P Annualized 8.44%
Sector Model Annualized 24.58%
Large Portfolio Annualized 35.65%


From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com...-position.html

First cash position: selling TTM with no replacement.

The model is showing that the long bias in the market is continuing to weaken. It is STILL long, but only with net 30% strength.

Please keep in mind that this “bias” on the model is not directly related to the market as a whole – only to current investment opportunities within the industries I monitor.

As always, a negative gap would prohibit the sale.

Tim

[Harry]

Hi Tim,

When you get a chance, can you elaborate on you definition of the buy/sell gaps that prohibit a trade in your model? Meaning, is it fixed on a %, $ amount or simply a discretionary call?

When their is both a buy & sell signal, if both gap away, are both gaps analyzed as a whole or would a single gap negate a transaction?

Thanks,
Harry

[Timothy Clontz]

If I'm trading one stock for another and they gap together, I'll still trade.

In the case of TTM, it will be against the dollar, since it's going to cash -- which is unusual for the model.

But if the sell gaps down and the buy gaps up, I don't want to chase the trade. I'll just recalculate for another day.