Quote Originally Posted by slgerritz View Post
You included the phrase secular bear market in your comments. Just for clarity, were you referring to the 2008 - 09 bear market or do you think we are heading into another secular bear market?

Stephen
Stephen,

A secular bull or bear market contains multiple cyclical bull or bear markets. The current secular bear market began in 2000 and so far has had two bear markets and two bull markets without making any net progress but because of inflation we have lost purchasing power even if we get out flat. We may or may not have started a 3rd cyclical bear market in September. This can only be determined in the rear view mirror.

The last time we had a situation like this was 1966 through 1982 with I think maybe six cyclical bear-bull cycles without making any net progress. I attach a long term view of the market showing secular cycles. The scale of the chart makes it difficult to see the cyclical cycles but remember that the 1974 bear market was deep and scary.

Dow History.pdf