GDX Next Buy signal

[Pascal]

It's interesting to watch it unfold. For daytraders, it seems if you take the RT signal, the question of closing or maintaning the position is answered in the confidence level. Thanks Pascal, Dave

The confidence look at the time left until the end of day and the distance to the signal.
This means that if the distance to the signal does not change, as we come closer to the EOD, then the confidence level will rise to 80% and then the short signal will be issued.

For a short signal not to be issued, then we need to move above the dotted short level.


Pascal

[DJones]

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.
Pascal

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

[Pascal]

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

You are indeed right: the short signal was canceled and I really do not expect to be forced out now.
In fact, the confidence level works like the porosity level, except that it is "flexible" in terms of time and distance to the signal... and it goes back to see what the GDX MF did in the past 1158 days.


Pascal


Pascal

[davidallison@gmail.com]

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

Good to talk about this. I am long as well, but was perhaps considering what to do if things had deteriorated. The 'Next signal strenght' would indicate that shorting, or maybe position sizing if one wanted to short, is answered there. In other words, shorting is ill advised. Looks like the dip was a great buying opportunity. Hey Djone, Dave

[Pascal]

By the way, I noticed that the reversal signal came quicker than the chart update, because a chart is heavier to send and slower to be processed by the browser.


Pascal

[pdp-brugge]

Pascal,

According to what I read in the new Trading Models section, a confidence level of 80% is needed to trade a signal intraday.
Yesterday, the intraday Bought Protected signal had a confidence of 78.0%.
What do we do now:
- go long at the open today ?
- stay short and wait until the bought signal gets a confidence level above 80% ?

Please advice

[Pascal]

Pascal,

According to what I read in the new Trading Models section, a confidence level of 80% is needed to trade a signal intraday.
Yesterday, the intraday Bought Protected signal had a confidence of 78.0%.
What do we do now:
- go long at the open today ?
- stay short and wait until the bought signal gets a confidence level above 80% ?

Please advice

Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.

We are issuing reversed signals simply because the GDX Model is whipsawing around the 0 level.

I attach below two screen shots taken at different time, but very close to the EOD.
You can see that the confidence level varied much.
The reason is simple: All instruments experience and end of day spike, which correspond to "at the close" orders.

For GDX, the average spike is 0.0582%. However, 20% of the end of day spikes are above 0.085%
Since the distance between the signal and the Buy level was always lower than 0.085% in the last minute of trading, then an intraday confirmed buy signal could NOT be issued.

I myself however closed the short when the confidence level was around 55% and took a long position at a confidence level of 70%, but the system is programmed for 80% (I "gambled" that the spike at the end of the day would not be strongly negative.)

Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.

Please understand that the confidence level is only a guide that uses past trade statistics. I advise everyone to take trading decisions as they see fit. When the confidence level is 70%, it means that in 7 cases out of 10, the signal did not reverse by the close.

What you might do is close a previous position when a new signal reaches 50% and then open a new position afterward when you see it fit, depending on you judgement of the probability.

The GDX Model is now in a BUY PROTECTED mode.

We will most probably also add in a new information box the probability that a new "NON-CONFIRMED" signal is issued during the day. Once such a signal is issued, then the system will turn on the confidence level.


Pascal

[pdp-brugge]

Thanks for the reply!
I know now what to do.

[DJones]

[QUOTE=Pascal;24304]Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.
Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.
Pascal

1) The track record will show a buy at what price? The next day's open, or that day's open?

2) Could you post the current GDX RT results spreadsheet?

Thanks

[Pascal]

[QUOTE=DJones;24311]

Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.
Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.
Pascal

1) The track record will show a buy at what price? The next day's open, or that day's open?

2) Could you post the current GDX RT results spreadsheet?

Thanks

The track record will show a buy at today's open, whihc I believe was around 46.2

The GDX RT spreadsheet can be seen in the GDX Model return section. See below.
I'll update that link whenever I'll remember to do so or when someone will nicely remind me.


Pascal