GDX Next Buy signal

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal, With the RT now shorting and if one was in a long position, then checking in 30 min before the close, what action would you suggest if we appear to be closing in an unconfirmed RT short? Close the long position and go to cash?

Thanks, Dave

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.



Pascal

[davidallison@gmail.com]

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.

Pascal

It's interesting to watch it unfold. For daytraders, it seems if you take the RT signal, the question of closing or maintaning the position is answered in the confidence level. Thanks Pascal, Dave

[Pascal]

It's interesting to watch it unfold. For daytraders, it seems if you take the RT signal, the question of closing or maintaning the position is answered in the confidence level. Thanks Pascal, Dave

The confidence look at the time left until the end of day and the distance to the signal.
This means that if the distance to the signal does not change, as we come closer to the EOD, then the confidence level will rise to 80% and then the short signal will be issued.

For a short signal not to be issued, then we need to move above the dotted short level.


Pascal

[DJones]

If we are in non-confirmed short 30 minutes before the close, I would wait and see if the signal gets a confirmation.
If I see a few minutes before the close that we will have a confirmation then I will place a short.

I believe that the confidence level will be clear.
Pascal

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

[Pascal]

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

You are indeed right: the short signal was canceled and I really do not expect to be forced out now.
In fact, the confidence level works like the porosity level, except that it is "flexible" in terms of time and distance to the signal... and it goes back to see what the GDX MF did in the past 1158 days.


Pascal


Pascal

[davidallison@gmail.com]

So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.

Good to talk about this. I am long as well, but was perhaps considering what to do if things had deteriorated. The 'Next signal strenght' would indicate that shorting, or maybe position sizing if one wanted to short, is answered there. In other words, shorting is ill advised. Looks like the dip was a great buying opportunity. Hey Djone, Dave