By the way, I noticed that the reversal signal came quicker than the chart update, because a chart is heavier to send and slower to be processed by the browser.
Pascal
By the way, I noticed that the reversal signal came quicker than the chart update, because a chart is heavier to send and slower to be processed by the browser.
Pascal
Pascal,
According to what I read in the new Trading Models section, a confidence level of 80% is needed to trade a signal intraday.
Yesterday, the intraday Bought Protected signal had a confidence of 78.0%.
What do we do now:
- go long at the open today ?
- stay short and wait until the bought signal gets a confidence level above 80% ?
Please advice
Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.Originally Posted by pdp-brugge
We are issuing reversed signals simply because the GDX Model is whipsawing around the 0 level.
I attach below two screen shots taken at different time, but very close to the EOD.
You can see that the confidence level varied much.
The reason is simple: All instruments experience and end of day spike, which correspond to "at the close" orders.
For GDX, the average spike is 0.0582%. However, 20% of the end of day spikes are above 0.085%
Since the distance between the signal and the Buy level was always lower than 0.085% in the last minute of trading, then an intraday confirmed buy signal could NOT be issued.
I myself however closed the short when the confidence level was around 55% and took a long position at a confidence level of 70%, but the system is programmed for 80% (I "gambled" that the spike at the end of the day would not be strongly negative.)
Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.
Please understand that the confidence level is only a guide that uses past trade statistics. I advise everyone to take trading decisions as they see fit. When the confidence level is 70%, it means that in 7 cases out of 10, the signal did not reverse by the close.
What you might do is close a previous position when a new signal reaches 50% and then open a new position afterward when you see it fit, depending on you judgement of the probability.
The GDX Model is now in a BUY PROTECTED mode.
We will most probably also add in a new information box the probability that a new "NON-CONFIRMED" signal is issued during the day. Once such a signal is issued, then the system will turn on the confidence level.
Pascal
Thanks for the reply!
I know now what to do.
[QUOTE=Pascal;24304]Good question! I was going to post a message regarding yesterday's Confidence level evolution.
Since the signal is issued at the close, for our track record, we will note a change to a buy signal at the price of the open of the day.
Pascal
1) The track record will show a buy at what price? The next day's open, or that day's open?
2) Could you post the current GDX RT results spreadsheet?
Thanks
[QUOTE=DJones;24311]The track record will show a buy at today's open, whihc I believe was around 46.2
The GDX RT spreadsheet can be seen in the GDX Model return section. See below.
I'll update that link whenever I'll remember to do so or when someone will nicely remind me.
Pascal
gdx is whipsawing :(
I have opened a long trade at the open that I have closed once the short signal had a confidence of 50%
Th confidence is now (11:37 New-York Time) above 70%.
Maybe a stupid question: what happens if intraday the confidence goes above 80% - is there a possibility that it then again drops below?
If so, should we wait until 30 minutes before the close to act
At 80%, the short trade will be opened and the confidence level will stop being shown.
At 80%, it means that "that far in the trading day, only 20% of the time did the MF move back up to the short limit"
Pascal
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