Quote Originally Posted by DJones View Post
So...just to be clear...if there is no confirmation before the close, you would stay long even though the bot has issued a (unconfirmed) short signal.

Personally, I'm inclined to stay long here, even into the weekend though I recognize the risk with that. Why? In the past, looking at a longer term (5, 10, even 15 day) comparison of MF and price has given a good sense of where the price is relative to where we would expect it to be given the MF over that time period. In some cases, and this is shaping up to be one, the drawdown gets a little frisky, but eventually that longer time frame has correctly predicted a winning trade. Looking at the longer term (5/10/15) now sure makes one think the next move is to the upside. I'll admit, though, looking at a 20 day time period that answer is a little less clear.
You are indeed right: the short signal was canceled and I really do not expect to be forced out now.
In fact, the confidence level works like the porosity level, except that it is "flexible" in terms of time and distance to the signal... and it goes back to see what the GDX MF did in the past 1158 days.


Pascal


Pascal