11/24/2012 Mousetrap

[Timothy Clontz]

Small Portfolio XLF & IAU 18.25%

Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -31.07% 161
RIMM 7/16/2012 60.83% 130
SEAC 9/25/2012 9.79% 59
CAJ 9/25/2012 3.84% 59
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -7.32% 59
CFI 10/31/2012 3.42% 23
CGX 11/5/2012 13.52% 18
MO 11/8/2012 6.62% 15
EL 11/12/2012 3.70% 11
BOKF 11/19/2012 1.00% 4

S&P Annualized 3.20%
Small Portfolio Annualized 12.30%
Large Portfolio Annualized 20.95%

From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com...buying-re.html
Rotation: selling DECK; buying RE.
DECK has had its chance. It’s still a good buy, but RE is a better buy. Hurricane Sandy has had a good run in making the REINSUR industry a bargain for us, so it’s time to test those waters.
But last week I promised a bit more on taxes.
So, taxes…
Regardless of the difference between the Bush and Obama tax rates, they do appear to have one thing in common: the short term rates are 20% higher than the long term rates in either scheme.
That makes the math easy, but it’s not the entire answer.
Or perhaps I should say, it’s not the PERMANENT answer.
Here’s the graph:



Seems simple. The green line is the sector model in an IRA account. The orange line is the sector model after the Bush tax rates. The red line is the sector model after the Obama tax rates.
And while these are all profitable when the S&P goes nowhere for a decade, I do not yet know how profitable they will be when a new secular bull market begins.
That’s not likely before 2020, so I have some time. Until then, my model should continue to outperform the broad market, even AFTER Obama’s tax rates take effect.
For now, it’s good enough.
I hope everyone has enjoyed a lovely Thanksgiving with their family. That’s what’s important. I like math. I love my family.
For a life, that’s more than good enough. 
Tim

[Billy]

Tim,
For your timing, you should notice that DECK is the top 10-year performer among major retail stocks during the week following Black Friday. It averaged an 8.4% return in that week and has been positive the last nine years in a row.
Billy

[Timothy Clontz]

Thanks Billy.

Waited to sell after the 5.25% pop today. Reduced my losses a good bit.