20DMF and AAPL

[Pascal]

Interesting action: money moving out of the markets, but barely out of AAPL.

Note that if the MF closes below the red dotted line, it will turn short.
Be aware that the market is now used to discount pull-backs in expectation of fresh liquidity.
It is not wise to trade as if you knew what the next move will be. If you "know it", then everybody else knows it and this knowledge is probably priced in. It is always wiser not to "know," because you will be betting your knowledge against thousands (millions?) of other people's knowledge - opinion.

For example: I am pretty sure that you know that China is going to have a hard landing and that commodities will be hit hard. You also know that with major elections in Europe over the week-end, political instability will be the main focus next week. Finally, everybody knows that even if there is officially no QE, the FED needs to create liquidity to force rates down by buying treasuries.

If you know this then it is already in the market price. This market is very hard because everybody is more clever than everybody else and at the end, sheer brutal force of liquidity - or the lack of it - is what moves the price.

So, stay focused on what you do not know and doubt what you know!



Pascal