Imminent Resolutions Of Consolidations - April 20, 2012

[Billy]

The initial and today’s secondary limit entry price of 80.03 will see their reward depend on IWM decisively running down away from the Quarterly pivot (80.28) or the quarter’s equilibrium price. So far nothing decisive has happened and the ETF is still above the Weekly pivot (79.53) or the week’s equilibrium price. There are slightly stronger resistance than support clusters and a big gap between the two support clusters. This could be a catalyst for a nasty sell-off next week down to a logical confluence target of Quarterly S1 (75.90) and the 200-day moving average (75.54). The 20 DMF is short and LT/ST settings are forecasting some short edges, but the model is near a cash or buy signal. Indecision is prevalent so far in the price behavior and we must prepare for all scenarios, frustrating sideways action included.



For GDX, nothing has changed for the bullish case, but an even stronger and promising MF evolution. We are very close to the apex of this consolidation support with the downtrend line from the March top. A breakout/breakdown is due within the next 2 or 3 trading days. The pivot reference for a breakout is Weekly pivot (47.27) and Quarterly S1 (45.75) for a breakdown. The porosity today is 0.145%.
Billy